TCU playing for March Madness as stretch run approaches

TCU men’s basketball coach Jamie Dixon, a participant in 11 of the last 13 NCAA Tournaments during his tenure at Pittsburgh, understands the March Madness numbers game as well as anyone.

A league loaded with top-50 teams in the RPI rankings, which is the case for the Big 12, stands a better chance of sending representatives to the Big Dance with records of .500 or below in conference play than other leagues.

It’s a precedent that has benefited the Big 12, helping the 10-member league place seven teams in each of the last three tournaments.

Three of those 21 teams made the field despite records of 8-10 during the Big 12’s round-robin schedule. That is relevant for the Horned Frogs (17-9, 6-7 in Big 12) because they enter Saturday’s game at Iowa State (16-9, 8-5) as one of five teams in the mix for four probable spots to join No. 3-ranked Kansas, No. 4 Baylor and No. 9 West Virginia in this year’s NCAA field.

Each victory by TCU over Iowa State, Texas Tech (17-9, 5-8) and Kansas State (16-10, 5-8) figures to add extra weight to the Horned Frogs’ case when selection committee members finalize at-large additions to the 68-team field.

That raises the stakes for Saturday’s 5 p.m. matchup in Ames, Iowa, against the Cyclones, whom the Frogs defeated 84-77 on Jan. 14 in Fort Worth.

“We know what the number is,” Dixon said, reflecting on the likelihood that seven teams from the Big 12 will reach the tournament. “But that’s all speculation. It depends on who wins what and how many bids are available. We’ve got to go and beat Iowa State. We got them at our place, obviously. But we’ve got to go and get them up there.”

Recent momentum rests with the Cyclones, who enter with a two-game winning streak and have posted a 3-1 record since the emergence of 6-foot-8 forward Solomon Young as a key contributor. Young, a freshman who missed multiple nonconference games because of a broken finger, has averaged 6.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 25.3 minutes per game during ISU’s last four contests.

“He gives us a post presence to do the blue-collar stuff this team needs,” Iowa State coach Steve Prohm said.

In Wednesday’s 87-79 victory at Kansas State, Young posted season highs for points (18), rebounds (12) and minutes (33). He played three scoreless minutes and did not grab a rebound against TCU in Fort Worth. Prohm vowed he will have a bigger role in Saturday’s rematch.

Dixon said he’s primarily concerned about Iowa State’s senior-laden collection of guards, led by All-Big 12 candidate Monte Morris (15.9 points per game). In addition to limiting the Cyclones’ dribble penetration, a recurring challenge during TCU’s two-game losing streak, Dixon has focused his attention on the team’s shot selection after Wednesday’s 71-68 loss to Oklahoma State in Schollmaier Arena.

“One of the things we’ve got to do is follow up a bad shot with a really good possession. I don’t know that we’re there yet,” Dixon said. “Every team battles that. That’s probably a big step for us going forward. We’ve got to get ourselves taken care of and get ourselves figured out.”

How well TCU addresses that issue over its final five regular-season games figures to determine the Frogs’ postseason destination. TCU plays its next four games against fellow NCAA-caliber teams (Iowa State, Kansas, West Virginia, Kansas State) before closing its regular-season slate March 4 at Oklahoma (9-16, 3-10).

Recent precedent suggests the Frogs need to win at least two of those games, and preferably three, to assure themselves of their first NCAA bid since 1998. During the past three seasons, only two Big 12 schools failed to reach March Madness with at least eight league victories and both of those struggled during nonconference play: Kansas State (15-17) in 2015 and West Virginia (17-16) in 2014.

TCU, the No. 49 team in the updated RPI rankings, posted an 11-2 record in nonconference play and knocked off three NCAA hopefuls in the process (Illinois State, Arkansas State, Texas Southern). But players know their season-defining games have yet to be played, starting Saturday at ISU.

“We’re playing to get in the tournament. We’ve got to come out and execute better and come out with the victory next time,” forward JD Miller said. “We can’t take too many more losses.”

This story was originally published February 17, 2017 at 1:14 PM with the headline "TCU playing for March Madness as stretch run approaches."