Australian Open could signal beginning of the end of Big 4

Last year, Nadal won the French Open for a record ninth time and Djokovic added his second Wimbledon crown, but Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic finally cracked the Grand Slam ceiling. It was the first time the sport had two first-time Grand Slam champions in a year since 2005, when Marat Safin won in Melbourne and Nadal won his first title at Roland Garros.

“To think that this great athlete at the top of the men’s game has two sets of twins and is juggling it all with his usual incredible class just means that we’re lucky to have him, and we’re lucky to still have him as a great force,” ESPN commentator Pam Shriver said during a conference call Friday. “He’s entering the year as a 2 seed, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was able to win another Australian Open. He’s not my pick, but it’s certainly possible.”

For Nadal, his mastery of the French Open might make that Grand Slam the hardest for an outsider to crack. Only once in the past decade has the Spaniard not kissed the trophy in Paris. Injuries and illness, however, have been the chink in the Spaniard’s armor. His physical style of play has taken a toll, first on his knees, then a wrist kept him from defending his U.S. Open title last year. Tack on an angry appendix that cut his 2014 season short, and Nadal will be in comeback mode in Melbourne.

“He’s very, very underdone coming into the Aussie Open,” ESPN commentator Darrin Cahill said. “The first two or three matches, obviously, all eyes will be on Rafa to see how his game is. … His game is rusty. … He’ll be vulnerable in the early rounds. But you know Nadal, if he can find his legs and find his way into the second week, he becomes more and more difficult to beat as time goes on.”

“Three wins in the last four years down here for Novak, it’s been a remarkable love affair that he’s had with the Australian Open, and his game suits the conditions down here incredibly well,” Cahill said. “He is the man to beat. It’s a little bit like — not quite as strong, but a little bit like — the French Open when we talk about Rafa. Until somebody can prove they can beat him here, he is the man to beat in my eyes.”

But the most intriguing storylines of 2015 might not involve the Big 4 at all. This could be the year a new wave of talent steps into the spotlight. Canadian Milos Raonic, Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov and Japan’s Kei Nishikori proved in 2014 that the next generation is inching closer.

“I feel like [Raonic] made major steps forward in feeling like he belonged on the big stage, in the big situation [last year],” Cahill said. “We saw him move to his first-ever major semifinal at Wimbledon — he got blown away by Roger. But even since [Wimbledon], he’s made several adjustments to his game. … So you’re seeing constant improvement in Milos’ game.”

Williams has won a Grand Slam title in seven of the past eight years, including two titles in four of those years. Williams has won the Australian Open five times, but she hasn’t won it since 2010, and the field is full of players looking for any opening to slip through.

Leading the list of potential favorites are 2008 winner and No. 2-ranked Maria Sharapova, Romania’s Simona Halep, who is No. 3 and has won nine titles in the past two years, and Wimbledon champion and No. 4 Petra Kvitova.

Others include 2014 comeback player of the year Ana Ivanovic at No. 5, Agnieskzka Radwanska at No. 6, Canadian rising star Eugenie Bouchard at No. 7 and Caroline Wozniacki at No. 8.

But the biggest threat to win the year’s first major might not even be seeded. Two-time Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka is on the comeback trail in 2015 after a series of injuries spoiled her 2014 campaign and dropped her ranking to No. 41. She is unseeded at a Grand Slam for the first time since 2007.

While Serena stands at the top of the women’s game, her sister Venus is proving she’s not ready to pack up the rackets . Venus arrives in Melbourne ranked No. 19 and coming off a strong showing last week, when she defeated Wozniacki 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the finals in Auckland, New Zealand. The next American women are Varvara Lepchenko at No. 30, Madison Keys at No. 33 and Sloane Stephens at No. 34. For the 21-year-old Stephens, 2014 was a step back after bursting on the scene with a semifinal appearance at the Australian Open in 2013 and climbing to a career high of No. 11. A wrist injury slowed her progress last year, and she will be looking to bounce back in 2015.

Early injuries are taking a toll on some of the game’s top players. Cilic, the defending U.S. Open champion, is out of the Australian Open with a shoulder injury and Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is sidelined with forearm inflammation. Former U.S. Open champion Juan Martin del Potro pulled out Saturday, further delaying his comeback after missing most of last season after surgery on his left wrist.