Predicting the Houston Texans 2026 record
The Houston Texans possess the building blocks of a Super Bowl roster.
But after going 12-5 in 2025 with a win over the Steelers in the wild card round, the Texans' divisional round loss to the New England Patriots highlighted exactly where they needed to improve. C.J. Stroud, who has yet to recapture his rookie-season form, threw four interceptions and had few clean pockets while the Texans ran for 48 yards on 22 carries.
Stroud's inconsistencies, an abysmal offensive line and the lack of a true starting running back kept the Texans out of championship contention. But after shoring up those holes and bolstering their already elite defense, the Texans could have enough offensive consistency to do damage in 2026.
Add the league's seventh-easiest schedule based on opponents' combined record in 2025, and Houston has a clear opportunity to join the AFC's elite.
Here's how I project the Texans' regular season to unfold:
Weeks 1-6: vs Buffalo Bills (W), vs Cincinnati Bengals (W), at Indianapolis Colts (W), vs Dallas Cowboys (L), at Tennessee Titans (W), at Jacksonville Jaguars (L)
The Texans face a bit of a gauntlet to start the season, facing three of the NFL's most potent offenses in the first four weeks. But early in the season, I expect the defenses will be a bit ahead of the offenses, and that seriously favors Houston. That, in part, is why they will jump all over the Bills and their new coaching staff in Week 1 and narrowly defeat the offense-only Bengals in Week 2.
They'll tack on an easy win over the Colts, who caught lightning in a bottle early in 2025 but spiraled after Daniel Jones' Achilles injury, to start 3-0 and send a message to the rest of the league. Riding high, the Texans will take their first loss of the season in a tight game against the Cowboys before suffering their second loss two weeks later against the Jaguars in London, who will have already been there for more than a week after facing Philadelphia in Week 5.
The record: 4-2
Weeks 7-12: vs New York Giants (W), bye, at Los Angeles Chargers (L), at Cleveland Browns (W), vs Indianapolis Colts (W), vs Baltimore Ravens (L)
Jet lag from the trip back to the States will not be enough for the Texans to lose to the lowly Giants, sending them into their bye week with a 5-2 record. Despite the extra prep time, the Texans will fall just short against the Chargers on the road. Games against the Browns and Colts get the Texans back on track before they face yet another big test.
In a tight game between two teams looking to make a deep playoff run, C.J. Stroud simply cannot match the impact of two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, who hands the Texans their fourth loss of the season.
The record: 8-4
Weeks 13-18: at Pittsburgh Steelers (W), at Washington Commanders (W), vs Jacksonville Jaguars (W), at Philadelphia Eagles (L), at Green Bay Packers (W), vs Tennessee Titans (W)
Already in a strong position to win the AFC South and make the playoffs, Houston leaves no doubt that it will be in the postseason. Rebounding from a tough loss to the Ravens, the Texans go on a run. They take care of business against Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh before picking up key wins over the Commanders and Jaguars, the latter of which could be the difference between winning and losing the division.
New Texan Reed Blankenship comes up short in a revenge game against Philadelphia, but Houston wins another tough game by downing the Packers at Lambeau Field for the first time since 2008. A regular-season finale against Tennessee gives the Texans another jolt of momentum heading into the playoffs and the franchise's first-ever 13-win season.
The record: 13-4
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