Sports

NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings for 2026, Done the Right Way

By Mike Kadlick Sports Illustrated

Updated May 18, 2026 6:23 AM

Now that the NFL schedule has officially been unveiled in its entirety, it's time to take a look at each team's strength of schedule for the 2026 season-the right way.

There was a bit of debate last week on football X (formerly Twitter) about how the strength of schedule should actually be calculated. As graphics highlighting each team's strength of schedule for the upcoming campaign began circulating on social media, it became clear that the traditional method-using opponents's winning percentages from the prior season to determine the difficulty of a team's upcoming slate-is both outdated and misleading.

As a clear example, look at the turnarounds the Patriots and Jaguars pulled off last season. Both New England and Jacksonville finished 2024 at 4–13 before turning in 14–3 and 13–4 records, respectively, in '25. Despite coaching changes and a more positive outlook surrounding both franchises heading into the campaign, their .236 winning percentages are what would have been used to calculate them as an opponent in this instance.

Doesn't make much sense, does it?

As such, we're doing this a little bit differently here at Sports Illustrated-looking forward instead of back to calculate our 2026 strength of schedule rankings. Using DraftKings Sportbook projected win totals, we've determined each team's expected opponent winning percentage for next season to better reflect the challenge-or lack thereof-they'll face across the coming 18-week slate.

Let's dive in. Here's a look at each team's strength of schedule for the 2026 season, ranked from hardest to easiest.

1. Arizona Cardinals (.535)

Projected win total: 4.5

Hardest matchup(s): Los Angeles Rams (Weeks 6, 10), Philadelphia Eagles (Week 13), Seattle Seahawks (Weeks 2, 9)

Easiest matchup(s): Las Vegas Raiders (Week 17), New York Jets (Week 15)

The Cardinals enter 2026 tied for the lowest win total at just 4.5, and life in the NFC West won't make things any easier this season. Arizona is set to take on the Seahawks, fresh off a Super Bowl LX win, and the Rams, equipped with the reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford, four times over the first nine weeks of the campaign.

2. Carolina Panthers (.528)

Projected win total: 7.5

Hardest matchup: Baltimore Ravens (Week 11)

Easiest matchup: Cleveland Browns (Week 3)

While the Panthers will travel the fewest air miles of any team over the coming 18-week season, they'll also take on the second-hardest schedule. A Week 11 bout against the Ravens, who carry with them an 11.5 win-total, highlights a brutal slate that includes matchups against the Bears, Bengals, Eagles, Lions, Packers, and Seahawks.

3. Miami Dolphins (.524)

Projected win total: 4.5

Hardest matchup(s): Buffalo Bills (Weeks 11, 17), Detroit Lions (Week 9), Green Bay Packers (Week 15), Kansas City Chiefs (Week 3)

Easiest matchup(s): Las Vegas Raiders (Week 1), New York Jets (Weeks 7, 12)

Like the Cardinals, the Dolphins are projected to hover around the four-win mark this coming season. Two games each against the Bills and the defending AFC champion Patriots-while also having to take on the Chiefs, Lions and Packers-won't help Miami's cause as it enters a rebuilding 2026.

T4. Atlanta Falcons (.517)

Projected win total: 7.5

Hardest matchup: Baltimore Ravens (Week 5)

Easiest matchup: Cleveland Browns (Week 14)

The new-look Falcons have just one game against a team projected for 6.5 wins or fewer (Browns) in 2026, while taking on seven (49ers, Bears, Bengals, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Packers) with win totals of 9.5 or higher.

T4. Chicago Bears (.517)

Projected win total: 9.5

Hardest matchup(s): Buffalo Bills (Week 15), Detroit Lions (Weeks 12, 17), Green Bay Packers (Weeks 5, 16), Philadelphia Eagles (Week 3), Seattle Seahawks (Week 8)

Easiest matchup: Miami Dolphins (Week 14)

After winning the NFC North for the first time since 2020, the Bears were handed the league's fourth-hardest schedule in '26. They'll open the season on the road to take on the Panthers in Week 1 before a seven-week stretch that features contests against the Vikings, Eagles, Packers, Seahawks and Patriots. The back-half of their schedule, meanwhile, doesn't provide much relief, as they'll take on the Bills, Green Bay, the Lions and Minnesota over the final four weeks of the campaign.

T4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (.517)

Projected win total: 8.5

Hardest matchup: Baltimore Ravens (Week 14)

Easiest matchup: Cleveland Browns (Week 2)

The Buccaneers (sort of) ease into the 2026 season with an opening weekend matchup in Cincinnati against the Bengals before welcoming the Browns to Tampa for their home opener. Their hardest matchups will come in Weeks 4 and 5 against the Packers and Cowboys, respectively, Week 14 against the Ravens and Week 17 against the Rams.

T7. Dallas Cowboys (.514)

Projected win total: 9.5

Hardest matchup: Baltimore Ravens (Week 3)

Easiest matchup: Arizona Cardinals (Week 8)

Playing in prime time for a second consecutive Week 1, the Cowboys will open their 2026 season on Sunday Night Football against the Giants. Across the rest of their slate are games against the Ravens in Rio, a Thanksgiving matchup vs. the Eagles, and a Week 13 trip to Seattle to take on the defending champion Seahawks.

T7. Los Angeles Rams (.514)

Projected win total: 10.5

Hardest matchup(s): Buffalo Bills (Week 5), Green Bay Packers (Week 12), Kansas City Chiefs (Week 13), Philadelphia Eagles (Week 4), Seattle Seahawks (Weeks 16, 18)

Easiest matchup: Arizona Cardinals (Weeks 6, 10)

The Rams will be immediately tested in 2026 when they're sent Down Under to "host" the 49ers from Australia's Melbourne Cricket Ground in Week 1. While they do have the benefit of playing the Cardinals twice, they're also being forced into contests against the defending champion Seahawks in two of the final three weeks of the season.

T9. Green Bay Packers (.510)

Projected win total: 10.5

Hardest matchup(s): Buffalo Bills (Week 14), Detroit Lions (Weeks 7, 18), Los Angeles Rams (Week 12)

Easiest matchup: Miami Dolphins (Week 15)

The Packers have quite a gauntlet in 2026, underscored by games against the Bills, Lions (x2) and Rams. They'll also play the Bears and Vikings twice each, the Cowboys in Week 6 and the Patriots-at Gillette Stadium-in Week 9.

T9. Pittsburgh Steelers (.510)

Projected win total: 8.5

Hardest matchup(s): Baltimore Ravens (Weeks 15, 18)

Easiest matchup(s): Cleveland Browns (Week 4), Tennessee Titans (Week 17)

Aaron Rodgers made his return to the Steelers official this past weekend, giving Pittsburgh reason for optimism in 2026. While their schedule is currently filled with five stand-alone games, the return of their 42-year-old quarterback will likely open up the door for more prime-time appointments as the back-half of the season approaches.

T9. Washington Commanders (.510)

Projected win total: 7.5

Hardest matchup(s): Los Angeles Rams (Week 9), Philadelphia Eagles (Weeks 1, 8), Seattle Seahawks (Week 3)

Easiest matchup: Arizona Cardinals (Week 12)

The Commanders open the season with two straight road trips against the Eagles and Cowboys before returning home in Week 3 to take on the Seahawks. Quite the three-game stretch for a Washington team hoping that quarterback Jayden Daniels returns to his 2024 Rookie of the Year-winning form.

T12. Houston Texans (.507)

Projected win total: 9.5

Hardest matchup: Baltimore Ravens (Week 12)

Easiest matchup(s): Cleveland Browns (Week 10), Tennessee Titans (Weeks 5, 18)

After allowing the second-fewest points per game throughout the regular season in 2025, the Texans enter '26 looking to rebound off their wild-card round loss to the Patriots last January. Tough stretches of their coming schedule include a Week 6 trip to London to face the Jaguars and back-to-back prime-time games on the road against the Eagles and Packers in Weeks 16 and 17.

T12. Jacksonville Jaguars (.507)

Projected win total: 8.5

Hardest matchup: Baltimore Ravens (Week 9)

Easiest matchup(s): Cleveland Browns (Week 1), Tennessee Titans (Weeks 10, 12)

One of the Jaguars' three easiest games of the 2026 season comes in Week 1 when they welcome the Browns to Jacksonville. Looped into a schedule tied for the 12th-hardest in the NFL in not only a prime-time battle against the Ravens in Baltimore, but also back-to-back bouts in London against the Eagles and Texans.

T12. Minnesota Vikings (.507)

Projected win total: 8.5

Hardest matchup(s): Buffalo Bills (Week 9), Detroit Lions (Week 8), Green Bay Packers (Week 10)

Easiest matchup: New York Jets (Week 17)

The Vikings' starting quarterback spot is seemingly up for grabs as head coach Kevin O'Connell gets ready to oversee an open competition between J.J. McCarthy and Kyler Murray. Whoever ultimately wins the job will be tasked with leading Minnesota through a schedule that begins and ends at home with games against the Packers in Week 1 and Bears in Week 18.

T12. New York Giants (.507)

Projected win total: 7.5

Hardest matchup(s): Detroit Lions (Week 16), Los Angeles Rams (Week 2), Philadelphia Eagles (Weeks 9, 18), Seattle Seahawks (Week 14)

Easiest matchup: Tennessee Titans (Week 3)

It's officially #HarbaughSZN in New York as the longtime Ravens head coach looks to find new life in his first season leading the Giants.

T16. Los Angeles Chargers (.503)

Projected win total: 9.5

Hardest matchup: Baltimore Ravens (Week 10)

Easiest matchup(s): Arizona Cardinals (Week 1), Miami Dolphins (Week 16)

The Chargers open the season with an easy one against the Cardinals before seeing a relative gauntlet from Week 3 to Week 6 when they take on the Bills, Seahawks, Broncos and Chiefs. They'll then play the latter two again in Weeks 17 and 18, with a season finale in Denver for what could very well decide playoff positioning for either club.

T16. Seattle Seahawks (.503)

Projected win total: 10.5

Hardest matchups(s): Kansas City Chiefs (Week 7), Los Angeles Rams (Weeks 16, 18), Philadelphia Eagles (Week 15)

Easiest matchup: Arizona Cardinals (Weeks 2, 9)

The defending champion Seahawks will raise their Super Bowl LX banner in a Big Game rematch against the Patriots in Week 1. Facing a middle-of-the-pack schedule overall, their toughest test comes late in the year with two matchups against the Rams over the final three weeks of the season.

T18. Buffalo Bills (.500)

Projected win total: 10.5

Hardest matchup: Baltimore Ravens (Week 8)

Easiest matchup: Miami Dolphins (Weeks 11, 17)

The Bills will endure the NFL's first short week of the season when they christen their new Highmark Stadium in Week 2 against the Lions on Thursday Night Football. Buffalo, under new head coach Joe Brady and perennial MVP candidate Josh Allen, will endure a brutal stretch of games in the latter half of the season when they take on the Chiefs, Patriots, Packers, Bears and Broncos in consecutive weekends. Their final two games, however, come against some easy competition in the Dolphins and Jets.

T18. Las Vegas Raiders (.500)

Projected win total: 5.5

Hardest matchup(s): Buffalo Bills (Week 6), Kansas City Chiefs (Weeks 4, 18), Los Angeles Rams (Week 7), Seattle Seahawks (Week 10)

Easiest matchup: Miami Dolphins (Week 1)

When will the Raiders hand the quarterbacking reins to Fernando Mendoza? If it isn't to begin the season, then their Week 8 game against the Jets-which follows a murderers' row of bouts against the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams-would make a lot of sense.

T20. Indianapolis Colts (.497)

Projected win total: 7.5

Hardest matchup: Baltimore Ravens (Week 1)

Easiest matchup: Miami Dolphins (Week 10)

The Colts started 2025 red hot before an Achilles injury to Daniel Jones amid a three-game losing streak derailed their campaign. Even still, Indianapolis re-signed the quarterback-along with his favorite wide receiver-to a contract extension this offseason, and will look to get back to the playoffs this season for the first time since 2020.

T20. Tennessee Titans (.497)

Projected win total: 6.5

Hardest matchup: Baltimore Ravens(Week 4)

Easiest matchup(s): Las Vegas Raiders (Week 16), New York Jets (Week 1)

Cam Ward's second season at the helm for the Titans is set to look a lot different with Robert Saleh as head coach and Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator. Tennessee's toughest matchup comes in Week 4 against the Titans, while games against the Jets, Browns, Colts and Raiders could help them build a foundation for the future.

22. New England Patriots (.493)

Projected win total: 9.5

Hardest matchup(s): Buffalo Bills (Weeks 4, 13), Detroit Lions (Week 10), Green Bay Packers (Week 9), Seattle Seahawks (Week 1)

Easiest matchup: Miami Dolphins (Weeks 8, 10)

The Patriots enter 2026 fresh off an appearance in Super Bowl LX, and will have an immediate chance for revenge in Week 1 when they take on the Seahawks in Seattle. They then welcome the Steelers to Foxborough, Mass., in Week 2, head to Munich in Week 9 to face the Lions and see the Chargers, Bills, Vikings and Chiefs in consecutive games following their late-November bye.

T23. Baltimore Ravens (.490)

Projected win total: 11.5

Hardest matchup: Buffalo Bills (Week 8)

Easiest matchup(s): Cleveland Browns (Weeks 6, 16), Tennessee Titans (Week 4)

After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2021, the Ravens fired head coach John Harbaugh and hired former Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to lead the charge (get it?). With Lamar Jackson seemingly bought in, Baltimore will begin its 2026 season on the road against the Colts, head to Rio in Week 3 to take on the Cowboys and have to wait until Week 13 for its bye before closing out the campaign with the Buccaneers, Steelers, Browns, Bengals and Steelers again.

T23. Philadelphia Eagles (.490)

Projected win total: 10.5

Hardest matchup(s): Los Angeles Rams (Week 4), Seattle Seahawks (Week 15)

Easiest matchup: Arizona Cardinals (Week 13)

Whether A.J. Brown is a member of the team or not, the Eagles will look to rebound in 2026 after losing to the 49ers in last season's NFC wild-card round. The results of their Monday Night Football game against the Bears in Chicago and two home bouts against the Rams and Seahawks will be crucial for seeding in what will likely be a jam-packed race to the postseason.

T23. San Francisco 49ers (.490)

Projected win total: 9.5

Hardest matchup(s): Kansas City Chiefs (Week 16), Los Angeles Rams (Weeks 1, 14), Seattle Seahawks(Weeks 5, 12)

Easiest matchup(s): Arizona Cardinals (Weeks 3, 18), Miami Dolphins (Week 2)

Set to travel the most air miles of any team in 2026, the 49ers are scheduled to play two international games-first against the Rams (Week 1) in Melbourne and again against the Vikings (Week 11) in Mexico City. San Francisco also plays road games at Seattle, Atlanta and New York this season.

T26. Cleveland Browns (.486)

Projected win total: 6.5

Hardest matchup(s): Baltimore Ravens (Weeks 6, 16)

Easiest matchup(s): Las Vegas Raiders (Week 12), New York Jets (Week 5)

The Browns begin the 2026 with two consecutive games in Florida, first taking on the Jaguars in Jacksonville and then the Buccaneers in Tampa. While their schedule as a whole isn't all that challenging, Cleveland's toughest test all come in the division with two games apiece against the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers.

T26. Denver Broncos (.486)

Projected win total: 9.5

Hardest matchup(s): Buffalo Bills (Week 16), Kansas City Chiefs (Weeks 1, 8), Los Angeles Rams (Week 3), Seattle Seahawks (Week 6)

Easiest matchup(s): Arizona Cardinals (Week 7), Miami Dolphins (Week 13)

After losing to the Patriots in the AFC championship, a game they very well could have won if not for Bo Nix's ankle injury, the Broncos likely enter 2026 with some lofty goals. A Monday Night Football matchup against the Chiefs in Week 1 begins a season that will conclude with three tough tests against the Bills, Patriots and Chargers, in that order.

T26. New York Jets (.486)

Projected win total: 5.5

Hardest matchup(s): Buffalo Bills (Weeks 10, 18), Detroit Lions (Week 3), Green Bay Packers (Week 2), Kansas City Chiefs (Week 9)

Easiest matchup(s): Arizona Cardinals (Week 15), Miami Dolphins (Weeks 7, 12)

The Jets won't play any prime-time games in 2026, and while it's partly their own doing, the 26th-easiest schedule in football-littered with games against the Browns, Cardinals, Dolphins (x2) and Titans-doesn't help their cause, either.

29. New Orleans Saints (.483)

Projected win total: 7.5

Hardest matchup: Baltimore Ravens (Week 2)

Easiest matchup: Arizona Cardinals (Week 16)

Year 2 of the Tyler Shough era in New Orleans will begin with two tough road contests against the Lions and Ravens. They then return to the Bayou for a three-game homestretch against the Raiders, Falcons and Vikings. The Saints play the Buccaneers (twice), the Falcons in Atlanta and the Cardinals over their final four games, matchups that could prove pivotal in potential playoff positioning scenarios.

T30. Cincinnati Bengals (.479)

Projected win total: 9.5

Hardest matchup: Baltimore Ravens (Weeks 7, 17)

Easiest matchup: Miami Dolphins (Week 5)

The Bengals' trade for Dexter Lawrence II this offseason underscores Cincinnati's desire to build a defense that can complement its high-powered offense. Though their early Week 6 bye is less than ideal, December games against the Browns, Saints and Colts will help them ease into what they hope to be a Joe Burrow-led playoff run.

T30. Kansas City Chiefs (.479)

Projected win total: 10.5

Hardest matchup(s): Buffalo Bills (Week 12), Seattle Seahawks(Week 7)

Easiest matchup(s): Arizona Cardinals (Week 11), Miami Dolphins (Week 3)

As Patrick Mahomes looks to return from season-ending knee surgery as early as Week 1, his Chiefs enter the coming campaign with the second-easiest schedule. While games against the Bills, Seahawks, Rams and 49ers-as well as two against the Broncos-are no easy task, they'll also take on the Cardinals, Dolphins, Raiders and Jets as they look to get back to the postseason.

32. Detroit Lions (.472)

Projected win total: 10.5

Hardest matchup(s): Buffalo Bills (Week 2), Green Bay Packers (Weeks 7, 18)

Easiest matchup(s): Arizona Cardinals (Week 5), Miami Dolphins (Week 9)

The Lions went "strictly business" when revealing their 2026 schedule on social media, likely hinting at their desire to rebound after a down '25 campaign. Luckily, they'll try to do so with the easiest slate in the NFL.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings for 2026, Done the Right Way.

This story was originally published May 18, 2026 at 6:04 AM.