Texas Senate Rundown: Party unity problems plague Paxton, Talarico | Opinion
Here at the Texas Senate Rundown, we look forward to the day we can bring you analysis of the issue debates between Ken Paxton and James Talarico.
Today is not that day.
At this stage of the campaign, the two Texans vying for U.S. Senate are dealing with internal drama they’ll need to resolve to have their best shot at winning. Neither party’s primary battle is fading as fast as the campaigns surely hope.
Here’s a survey of some recent headlines and my analysis of each storyline.
Ken Paxton tells Dan Patrick about his outreach to John Cornyn
Paxton was the inaugural guest on Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s new podcast, and the two talked about the elephant in the Republican room. Not the actual animal that peed all over the floor at the recent state party convention but the hard feelings lingering after Paxton’s beatdown of Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary runoff.
Paxton said he’s eager to chat with Cornyn and have his help to beat Talarico, our Eleanor Dearman reports. “I’d be happy to talk to him,” Paxton said. “I’d love to have his help and support.” Patrick chimed in, too, lamenting Cornyn’s reluctance to go all-in to support Paxton.
The conversation is especially noteworthy given the online back and forth over whose job it is to patch up the Republican rift. Cornyn supporters want to be courted; Paxton backers want them to accept defeat and get in line.
My take: It’s up to candidates to go out and win elections.
Now that MAGA or populist Republicans, whatever you want to call them, dominate the Texas party, many seem to think that it’s the duty of more traditional Republicans to swallow defeat and vote for a candidate they may not like or trust.
This is an eternal debate inside political parties, which are broad coalitions. But for individuals who are on the ballot, it’s a big mistake to stomp your foot and say: “Here I am, come to me.” The voters have options, including just staying home on Election Day, and that could be a huge problem for Paxton.
Based on his interview with Patrick, he seems to understand this. Paxton was careful not to bash Cornyn, as he has been since his victory. Supporters and campaign surrogates have been more blunt.
Still, Paxton is going to have to give Cornyn’s voters something to work with. Often, that would be a policy concession, although there’s not that many substantive differences between the groups. And honestly, Paxton’s given every indication that his entire Senate agenda will amount to whatever Donald Trump wants. In the end, he’ll probably lean heavily on reminders for conservative and center-right voters of Talarico’s far-left agenda and the dangers of a Democrat-controlled Senate.
There’s one other option: Paxton’s campaign could distribute free Ambien to Cornyn voters to help them solve the challenge of voting for a venal degenerate such as Paxton and still find a way to sleep at night.
Texas Democrats have a unity problem, too
In their hunger to finally win something, you’d figure all Texas Democrats would be raring to go for Talarico.
Jasmine Crockett would beg to disagree.
She’s said all the right things about voting for Talarico after he bested her in the Senate primary. But she recently made clear her half-hearted feelings about it, saying she would concentrate on helping Democrats in other contests rather than expending much energy on Talarico. Explaining to The Dallas Morning News why she’ll skip the Texas Democratic convention this weekend in Corpus Christi, Crockett, a Dallas congresswoman, was blunt about a lack of enthusiasm among Black voters, in part because there are no Black Democratic nominees for major statewide office.
“I’ve not heard a bunch of kumbaya,” she told The News. “People don’t seem to be convinced at this point, but there’s a lot of time between now and November.”
My take: Crockett is sounding an alarm but also standing up for her base voters, possibly as a starting point for a comeback run in two or four years.
The problem goes beyond the simple diagnosis that Black Democrats’ have hurt feelings over how Crockett was treated or how Talarico lined up against other Black candidates, including Dallas congressional hopeful Colin Allred. Talarico is the kind of Democrat built in a lab to repel many of the Black voters who propel the party in election after election.
He’s much further to the left than they are, especially on issues of sexuality and religion. He reeks of the advantages that many perceive as helping young white men, even in a progressive party.
The closest analogy in recent Democratic politics is Pete Buttigieg, the too-polished darling of white progressives who value a great speech over actual legislative achievement or other real-world experience. We know how badly Buttigieg was perceived among Black voters in his 2020 presidential campaign. Talarico won’t sink to that level, but this problem could dog his entire effort.
Poll shows both candidates with work to do among independents
While they fight their internal battles, Paxton and Talarico are leaving the vast field of moderate voters there for the taking. A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Talarico with a huge lead among those who have decided. But a third of them say they have not yet done so.
My take: The question that matters here is: Who are these undecideds? If they are the typical Texas independents who vote for far more Republicans than Democrats but eschew party labels, odds are they will drift back to Paxton and he’ll be fine. But if they represent true undecideds, this is an opening for Talarico.
That is, if they vote. Partisans turn out reliably, independents less so. Still, both campaigns better be digging into the data and targeting messages to this swing group.
