What Texas GOP’s summer squabbling may mean for Democrats’ efforts to turn state blue
Watching the Texas Republican Party these days is a lot like watching a fading sports dynasty.
There’s infighting aplenty, as the victories that used to paper over internal differences fade from memory. There’s name-calling from the benches and open challenges to the team’s leadership.
Across the field, the long-suffering opponent piles on and hopes to take advantage and finally end its long losing streak.
The question is: How much, if at all, will any of it matter in November?
Gov. Greg Abbott is at the heart of this debate, besieged from left, right, center, above and beyond. To listen to his critics, his decisions on coronavirus restrictions managed to both spread the pandemic and turn Texas into a totalitarian state. Some county Republican parties, including in Denton, are even passing symbolic measures to “censure” the governor who’s won five straight statewide elections without breaking a sweat.
At the furthest fringe of the right, a couple of activists at Empower Texans left their podcast mics running and accidentally broadcast vulgar comments about Abbott. Their statements about his wheelchair use got the most attention, but what was notable from a political standpoint was the absolute vitriol they expressed toward an elected official with whom they probably agree 95% of the time.
Abbott’s leadership on the pandemic has been far from perfect. His orders and messages have sometimes been opaque, and as he took criticism from the right, he embraced a rapid reopening that he eventually had to claw back. His mask order came late, when far too many people had already decided that face coverings weren’t for them.
But he’s also tried to balance the imperative of checking the virus with the realization that we can’t all hole up at home until there’s a vaccine. Each decision is a tradeoff, and few have gotten it just right.
The good news for Abbott is that he’s not on the ballot this year. This infighting could be a problem for him if he decides to run for a third term in 2022, but in politics, two years is an eternity.
The more immediate concern for Republicans is whether the intra-squad squabbling will make losses likelier in November. The party was already on defense, having lost several congressional and legislative seats in 2018.
Pundits have sniffed around the idea that Democrats would recapture Texas every election cycle for two decades. But if it happens, it probably won’t be in one big, dramatic election; it’s more likely that they’ll grab a few more seats, and perhaps control of the Texas House, setting up a true clash for statewide offices in 2022.
For this fall, Republicans have much bigger problems than their summer of sniping. Imagine this plausible scenario: The virus rages, and the economy suffers another big dip when Texans stay home, whether ordered to or not. Schools open and close periodically, creating chaos for families. There are no sports or concerts. A deep pessimism sets in. When that happens, voters blame the party in power, rightly or wrongly.
Then, there’s the all-encompassing presence of President Donald Trump. He’s a straight shot of Red Bull for both parties’ bases. The question is whether the voters in the middle turn on him enough to stick with a long ballot and elect Democrats to Congress and the Legislature (and maybe even Tarrant County sheriff). The latest polls reinforce that the state is, at a minimum, truly competitive between Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.
Things can change again and again in four months; how well we’ve learned that lesson in 2020. But Democrats look poised to put points on the board in November, and that could mean they’re truly poised to dethrone the GOP dynasty in 2022.
Editor’s note: Updated at 9 a.m. Monday to reflect new polls.
This story was originally published July 13, 2020 at 5:03 AM.
