Democrats, kiss your hard work to turn Texas blue goodbye if Sanders is your nominee
Texas Democrats have worked for years — and in some cases decades — to put their party in a position to win the state House, flip more congressional seats, and compete statewide.
Just in time for their compatriots in other states to throw a big wet blanket over them.
Many are putting on a brave face, but the rise of Bernie Sanders endangers all they’ve toiled for. Sanders as the Democratic presidential nominee will almost certainly halt the party’s progress in Texas.
“[Voters] I’m on the phone with are worried,” said Kim Olson, a leading Democratic candidate in the 24th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Kenny Marchant is retiring.
The district, which runs from Hurst to Addison, is one of the party’s top targets nationwide. Democratic growth there is driven by the kinds of suburban voters repelled by Donald Trump’s excesses.
But many of them are not ready to embrace canceling private health insurance, taxing working people to pay off irresponsible college debt or plunging Texas into a deep recession with a ban on fracking.
Those are all parts of Sanders’ agenda. Every Republican in a competitive race will gleefully tie them around the neck of every Democrat they can find. And Texas Democrats may hurt their own cause: Sanders has a good chance of winning Tuesday’s primary, and a strong Texas showing could help propel him to the nomination.
Olson is one of seven Democrats on the ballot in her primary race. The retired Air Force officer and educator is campaigning as a more moderate candidate who can actually get things done in Congress.
A Sanders nomination is “not going to be the kiss of death,” she said Friday, noting that there’s still a long way to go in determining the party’s presidential nominee. But she doesn’t relish the idea of battling the socialist tag.
If Sanders wins, Olson said, his vice presidential pick needs to provide “some buffer … I hope it would be somebody reasonable.”
She added that he (or any other male nominee) “damn well better get a woman” on the ticket.
Fracking ban disaster
Olson’s confidence is catchy, but Democrats may not be reckoning yet with the full depth of the Sanders danger.
Take hydraulic fracturing. Sanders wants to ban it, quickly. Such a move would kill all sorts of good-paying shale jobs. And the resulting spike in energy prices would hurt everyone, whether in the industry or not.
Sanders at least says that a ban wouldn’t happen “overnight.” That makes it one of his more reasonable stances.
He seethes with anger over income inequality, and that is part of what’s driving his appeal with many. But plenty of moderates and Republican-leaning voters don’t hate wealth, they aspire to it. A Sanders candidacy would give many of these voters cause to drift back to Trump and the GOP.
The irony here is that just last week, the national Democratic Party announced it was focusing on Texas as a swing state, pledging to put resources into winning the state for the first time in decades. It’s the kind of help longtime Texas Democratic warriors have longed for, particularly after years of the state’s donors being, as Olson noted, “an ATM” for campaigns in other states.
Politics brings fewer guarantees these days. In the Trump era, anything is possible. And plenty of Texas Democrats believe that Sanders can create a tidal wave of progressive voters, especially young people, to more than offset any lost moderates.
“We’ve been fighting for this progress for so many years as a party, and as progressives, maybe this is the change we’ve been fighting for,” said Tara Pohlmeyer of the liberal advocacy group Progress Texas.
She noted that Democrats generally agree on issues such as making health care more affordable, tackling climate change and protecting abortion rights. Sanders, Pohlmeyer said, “is speaking to a lot of Texans. I don’t think anyone in the party can ignore his support and the voices of young voters.”
No new voters yet
But a voting surge isn’t real until it happens. And as The New York Times found in an analysis last week, Sanders’ predicted revolution isn’t happening in the states that have voted so far. He’s just doing a better job winning traditional party voters than he did four years ago.
If the presidential nominee is too far to the left, Olson says, down-ballot Democrats may have to remind voters that they need a check on Trump.
“Make damn sure you hold that U.S. House, and [try to flip] the Senate” to Democratic control, she said. “You have other concentrations you can focus on.”
