Julián Castro for governor? Why end of presidential campaign could be a new beginning
An epic election year could be shaping up for Texas.
Not this one. Pieces are already moving into place for 2022, the next big round of elections for offices such as governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
I can already hear the groaning — one election at a time, please! But Julian Castro’s withdrawal from the presidential race Thursday prompts questions about what role he may play in Texas politics going forward.
The former San Antonio mayor never got much traction in the big Democratic field. But he emerged without doing serious damage to his prospects and gained prominence in the party, particularly among progressive activists.
Now, he and the other Texan who flopped in the presidential contest, Beto O’Rourke, can lick their wounds and think about how to move forward in Texas if, as Democrats anticipate, statewide elections are finally competitive for their party.
There’s action on the Republican side, too. Most of the statewide officeholders, from Gov. Greg Abbott on down, will be finishing their second terms, a time when many step aside. Abbott may seek a third term, but even if he does, there could be a lot of potential movement.
Both Castro and O’Rourke seem like natural Democratic contenders for governor, even if Abbott runs again. Watching them dance around each other will be fascinating. Castro seems stronger right now, but he doesn’t have O’Rourke’s statewide track record.
One consideration is that neither of Texas’ U.S. Senate seats will be on the ballot in 2022. Would Castro and O’Rourke run against each other in a primary for governor? Would either be willing to go for the No. 2 spot, lieutenant governor?
Their rivalry, if one develops, could shape Texas Democratic politics for years. O’Rourke is concentrating on raising money to help Democrats win the Texas House, the kind of effort that could give him lots of favors to call in for a statewide race.
And if the waters look inviting, other Democrats could jump in. Castro’s twin brother, U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro, is building a solid reputation in Congress, but a run for, say, attorney general on the same ballot with his brother could be more attractive than a long-term career in DC.
One problem that Castro and O’Rourke share is that each lunged to the left in an effort to compete for the presidential nomination. On guns, abortion and other issues, they’d have to move back near the middle to compete in Texas. The state isn’t completely blue or anything close to it, after all.
Republicans, too, see the landscape potentially shifting. Consider the steady emergence of Land Commissioner George P. Bush as a voice in the state GOP. His recent clash with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick was a fascinating exchange that didn’t get much attention.
Bush, who is Hispanic, complained that false assertions he wants to allow construction of a statue at the Alamo to honor Mexican dictator Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna might be driven by racism against him. Patrick leaped in, accusing Bush of playing the race card.
That kind of charge, explosive in the pre-Trump age, could be the first of many battles if Bush and Patrick end up facing off in a primary for governor or lieutenant governor.
Events between now and then are crucial, of course. Castro will almost certainly be considered as a running mate by his party’s nominee or could end up in another Cabinet post. If President Donald Trump wins re-election, Castro and O’Rourke might want to skip statewide races entirely and try again for the White House in a wide-open 2024 Democratic primary.
OK, even for a political junkie, that’s one election too far to look ahead.
