Presidential nominations are a race to the finish
With the return of baseball, it seems entirely appropriate to let Hall of Famer Yogi Berra describe just where we are in this year’s presidential contests:
“It ain’t over till it’s over.”
One of Yogi’s most famous quotes has renewed meaning after voters in the Wisconsin primaries handed significant victories to Sens. Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders.
While just about everyone could repeat what he said, many may not know of the occasion when he delivered the brilliant line.
It was in July 1973 when he was managing the New York Mets, who were mired in last place. The Mets ended up winning their division championship with just one game remaining in the regular season.
Yogi’s declaration is seen as the turning point in his team’s season, after which they went on to win the National League Pennant and enter the World Series with the lowest winning percentage of any team in major league history.
With fresh enthusiasm, Cruz declared his Wisconsin victory his own turning point that would provide momentum in the remaining states leading to the Republican Convention in July.
“Either before Cleveland, or at the convention in Cleveland,” Cruz said, “Together we will win a majority of the delegates and together we will beat Hillary Clinton in November.”
While Donald Trump’s plunging popularity since the first of March has provided growing indications of his entering the convention without enough votes to seize the nomination on the first ballot, his resurgence may lie just ahead.
He’s the strong favorite in his home state of New York in just two weeks, and then on to good prospects for him in five more Northeastern states where voters are less supportive of Cruz’s far-right positions.
Although with no path to the nomination, Ohio Gov. John Kasich could come away with delegates, especially from Pennsylvania where he is in a virtual tie with Trump, and further complicate Trump’s ability to arrive in Cleveland with enough votes to avoid a contested convention.
On the Democrat side, Sanders continues to frustrate Hillary Clinton. With his big victory in Wisconsin, he has now won seven of the last eight caucuses and primaries and sent Hillary fuming.
She complains of a persistent, organized effort to misrepresent her record when dealing with her nagging opponent, who she mostly ignored until his unwavering supporters kept him in the race.
Frustration aside, unless she is derailed by her willful determination to manage her email outside the established confines of the government system, she will be her party’s nominee for the presidency.
That reality brings us back to the question of who’s best among the Republicans to defeat her in the general election.
In the final analysis, that remains the only question that matters. Without a first ballot win for Trump, Cruz could prevail as the winner on the second.
The Texas senator, however, faces strong opposition from the Republican establishment, which just happens to be why voters like him so much.
As a result, pundits continue to predict the ultimate nominee will be someone emerging from a brokered convention other than either Trump or Cruz.
The composite polling tracking done by Real Clear Politics has Cruz within three points of overtaking Hillary. Frequently since the primaries began, he has led in those polls.
With his formidable debating skills and clear conservative message to counter Hillary’s plans to enlarge the role of the federal government, he appears to be the Republicans’ best chance for victory.
Yogi’s team didn’t win the World Series in 1973. They came close, losing game seven by just three runs.
The establishment should get over themselves if they don’t want to see the same kind of results in November.
Richard Greene is a former Arlington mayor and served as an appointee of President George W. Bush as regional administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency.
This story was originally published April 8, 2016 at 6:59 PM with the headline "Presidential nominations are a race to the finish."