Surprise win doesn’t mean Dems will take Texas. But it’s a wake-up call | Opinion

Ten Super Bowls ago, quarterback Cam Newton offered history’s most succinct analysis of his Panthers’ loss to the Broncos: “They scored more points than us.” Similar clarity is helpful in examining how a Republican lost in Republican Texas Senate District 9 in Saturday’s special election: Democrat Taylor Rehmet got more votes than Leigh Wambsganss.

But why? And how? Was this a one-off or a harbinger of a setback for the Texas GOP in November, when these candidates will face off again?

It’s easy for Republicans to soft-pedal the loss. The seat can be won back in nine months, and the Legislature isn’t even in session this year. But make no mistake: These optics feed a narrative Democrats have tried to ignite for decades. With no Democrats winning statewide office since 1994, every election has been a breathless opportunity to proclaim that the state will turn purple on the way to going blue. Democrats once deployed that fervent hope even after a loss, Beto O’Rourke’s remarkably close finish behind Ted Cruz in 2018.

The years since have seen Texas remain reliably red. If that status is about to crumble, November’s midterms will reveal it.

Don’t bet on it. Lofting the SD 9 result as an indicator of approaching GOP doom requires sizable willful blindness. This was a special election at an irregular time, featuring limited voter awareness and paltry turnout. That said, Rehmet deserves credit for running a smart campaign, and Republicans need to figure out why so many of their voters stayed home.

Does Trump fatigue threaten Texas Republicans? Hardly

Democrats and long-suffering moderate Republicans would love to point to Wambsganss’ loss as evidence of Trump fatigue. Good luck with that. The Trump-loyal trifecta of Gov. Greg, Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and the winner of the U.S. Senate primary will all enjoy November victories.

And so will Wambsganss, after nine months of big-picture midterm campaigning that will move voters past the ultra-local intra-party bad blood that suppressed her turnout on Jan. 31.

She could well have won in November if former Southlake Mayor John Huffman had not decided to enter the race. His 16% plus her 36% meant 52% of the total vote went Republican. Huffman complained over the weekend that her campaign did not sufficiently “reach out” to him and his voters.

This makes me crazy. What did they expect, fruit baskets? Wambsganss made clear what every Republican voter should have known: She was the only remaining obstacle to a Democratic pickup. In any election season, as soon as the choice is binary, R versus D, it’s time to shelve old gripes.

Other excuses swirled, from ruffled feathers over the proposed Keller ISD split to broad observations about a Republican “establishment” favoring some factions over others. All voters are free to cleave to whatever factors they like, but when the dust has settled and only one choice remains, there is only one excuse for Republicans staying home, and that is ambivalence — the bottom line of simply not caring so much if a Democrat won.

I hope they’re happy, because he did, and come November, Taylor Rehmet will have spent additional months playing the same smart cards he played in this election: working-class veteran with a grassroots campaign style and a wise focus on pocketbook issues rather than the extremist stances that are the current tastes of Democrats in other states.

November rematch in Texas Senate district still favors GOP

But on that day, he will face a more accurate district landscape. Voters of both parties will flock to weigh in on all of the big state races in Texas as well as a U.S. Senate race. In the last normally scheduled election in 2022, Kelly Hancock won by 20 points.

But Hancock was a popular incumbent then, and this time, the incumbent will be a Democrat. The district’s demographics are changing, and one factor that boosted Democrat votes a few days ago will do so again. Democratic passion is high as the second Trump administration pursues its agenda with the help of allies at the top of Texas government and Congress.

Far from beaten into submission, Texas Democrats are gearing up for battle, and this race will draw particular interest and appreciable donations from those wishing to make “Senator Taylor Rehmet” more than a one-year stopgap gig.

Freed from the oddities and petty GOP bickering that swayed the winter race, the question before SD 9 voters will be a more simplified referendum. Wambsganss will be the choice of those who support Trump; Rehmet will get votes from those who don’t. The turnout will be at least three times higher, no one will be caught napping, the issues will have been fleshed out for months, and Republicans will not be caught flat-footed again.

Wambsganss won’t win by 20, but she’ll win.

Mark Davis hosts a morning radio show in Dallas-Fort Worth on 660-AM and at 660amtheanswer.com. Follow him on X: @markdavis.

This story was originally published February 3, 2026 at 4:48 AM.