George P. Bush never really had a shot against AG Ken Paxton in GOP runoff. Here’s why

There was never a reason to believe the Republican runoff for Texas attorney general would turn out any differently than it did. Ken Paxton’s doubling of George P. Bush’s vote totals last week was an accurate reflection of his enduring popularity in the Republican base.

There were temptations to overstate Paxton’s vulnerability. After all, if he is so popular, what was he doing in a runoff? But the dynamics of the March primary featured a triple-dose of attacks featuring not just Bush, but two challengers who divided Paxton’s grassroots conservative base — Louie Gohmert and Eva Guzman.

Their combined 34 percent of the vote was the main factor that dragged Paxton below the threshold needed to avoid the runoff. The vast majority of their voters viewed Paxton as a thoroughly acceptable second choice, and they provided the landslide margin in the runoff.

Elections are often a referendum on incumbents, and those who are dragged into runoffs often do not prevail. But in this case, it is Bush who learned a tough lesson about the binary nature of his appeal.

There were Republicans who were happy to vote for him and others who were never going to, with little room in between. The second group proved far larger, as his runoff total increased from 23% on March 1 to just 32% in the runoff.

Bush ran a praiseworthy race, hitting themes that resonate with Republicans, especially on border issues. But there was simply no open lane. From immigration to mask mandates to critical race theory battles, Paxton was able to connect with Republicans through a generous series of news cycles that helped voters recall why they elected him in the first place.

Bush tried to weaponize Paxton’s ethical clouds, from the securities fraud indictments to an FBI probe of assertions made by a pack of breakaway attorneys in his office. The attempt was no more successful than when Gohmert and Guzman similarly tried to brand Paxton as a crook of such damaged stature that a Democrat might actually beat him in November.

Those attacks failed because the years of inert indictments and the disgruntled attorneys’ assertions have yielded no objective proof of wrongdoing. Cynics have painted GOP voters as willfully blind to evidence of corruption, but the fact is that they saw Paxton’s baggage as nebulous and his achievements as concrete.

Paxton will now face Democrat Rochelle Garza, who breezed to her own runoff win Tuesday. Every statewide Democrat on the November ballot is trying to notch the first win for the party since 1994.

In 2018, Paxton bested Justin Nelson by just over 3 percentage points, while Gov. Greg Abbott was cruising to a 13-point win over Lupe Valdez. Around 473,000 Texans voted for Abbott but not Paxton. And this time, Democrats have a far more compelling candidate for governor in Beto O’Rourke.

It is still Paxton’s race to lose in persistently red Texas. He would surely enjoy the unifying effect of support from Bush, but the Bush concession contained no mention of his rival. There was a nod to Abbott but no pivot toward even grudging approval of a man he has called an unworthy villain for months.

Such is the post-primary hurdle: Republicans and Democrats beat each other to a pulp, then often join hands for the general election, hoping everyone forgets the invective of the past.

Much has been made of the “end of the Bush dynasty.” There has indeed been a Bush in office somewhere for most of America’s history since World War II, but George P. may not be done yet. He is a youthful 46, and despite the thumping at the hands of Paxton, he has given voters a reason to assess him differently than his father, uncle and grandfather, whose collective conservative cred has been in decline for years.

He has made clear he does not share the family’s vigorous hatred of Donald Trump, and many of his stated positions were closer to Paxton than to the policies associated with the Bush brand. In future quests, while he may not be Ted Cruz, nor will he be Mitt Romney.

Could Bush opt for Congress? If Abbott ever tires of the Governor’s Mansion, will the Texas political landscape offer him greater favor?

Anything is possible in the long term. In the short term, there was never a serious chance for anyone to upend Paxton.

Now, the attorney general who has cultivated enviable popularity among Republicans has to ask them to return strongly enough in November to provide the margin in what should be another close race.