Whether Ukraine or Russia prevail, we should worry that the real winner will be China
Ever since Russia launched its invasion on Feb. 24, the world has reacted by sending financial and military support to Ukraine.
Ukraine is three times smaller than Russia, so it’s worth mentioning that Ukraine is holding out very well against one of the most powerful militaries on earth. And yet whether Ukraine pulls off an unlikely victory or Russia prevails, people are forgetting that whatever happens, China will be the one gaining on the world stage.
China sees the war on Ukraine as a test for the United States and its allies. Will the western world band together and defend Ukraine, or will it allow a fragile nation to fall to a greater power?
So far, the U.S. and its NATO allies have joined together and concentrated efforts to help Ukraine, which has paid off. Congress approved a $40 billion package for Ukraine just for that reason alone.
If the U.S. and NATO had done nothing and allowed Russia to conquer a smaller neighbor, the Chinese would have been given the green light to invade Taiwan — it would have been clear that the free world was afraid to defend other democratic nations. And an occupied Taiwan would pose a major geopolitical threat to the American sphere of influence in the Pacific region.
China sees Russia as its inferior ally. The nations do not share the same culture, economic strength, or ideology and yet what keeps their convenient alliance together is opposition to U.S. power and NATO.
China sees Russia as a buffer state necessary to distract the U.S. and NATO. Russia will do hard power actions that China is unwilling to do. China wants to present itself as a peacemaker and a legitimate world superpower. This is why soft power has always been the strategy to dominate weaker economies in Africa and Asia.
And this is why China has stayed neutral about the war in Ukraine; it needs to keep those strong economic ties with the West while also staying in business with Russia. China is in talks right now to buy even more cheap Russian oil despite the war.
With western nations cutting Russia off from SWIFT, the international banking platform, and imposing economic sanctions, China has become a savior for the Russian economy. Even if Russia loses the war, China will still win something, and that is Russian dependence on China.
China will be able to tap more into the rich resources of Siberia. Russia, in essence, will become an oil-rich Chinese satellite state, and so will surrounding nations such as Kazahkstan and Belarus.
China will be able to manipulate Russia to do its bidding and keep the West occupied while China expands its Silk and Road initiative, which makes infrastructure investments across Europe and Asia.
Amy Gunia from Time writes: “It could also have an unintended consequence. Some experts say that Western sanctions are likely to bring Russia and China closer together economically — and that they may even pose a threat to the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global financial system.”
The US and NATO failed in using diplomacy to separate China and Russia, as the Nixon administration was successfully able to do during the 1970s. And if we are going to play the long game and counter China’s economic influence, we are going to have to revisit Richard Nixon’s foreign policy from the 1970s.
A Russia that’s with China will pose the greatest geopolitical threat that the U.S. and NATO have seen since the Cold War.
Clarification: This column has been updated to reflect the writer’s activity leading protests against Fort Worth ISD and leading a conservative student group.
This story was originally published May 27, 2022 at 7:04 AM.