Candidates see Tarrant as bellwether on Texas turning blue. What does it mean for midterms?

Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke agreeing on something in the final days of a campaign might seem impossible. But both the Republican senator and his erstwhile challenger, who’s now the Democratic nominee for governor, came here recently to proclaim the importance of Tarrant County to Texas’ political future.

Everyone, it seems, wants to make Fort Worth and its neighbors the central battleground in this and future elections. For Democrats, it’s the last cache of big urban and suburban votes to offset Republican strength in smaller cities, rural areas and exurbs. For the GOP, it’s a linchpin to holding Texas — and, some even say, remaining competitive in White House races.

But is it true? And what might we learn about where things stand as early voting wraps up Friday and Tuesday’s election are, mercifully, almost over?

Tarrant County remains a Republican stronghold, even if not as overwhelmingly as in the past. The results at the top of the 2018 and 2020 ballots have created an incorrect impression of a county that could tip from red to blue at any moment. It won’t happen this year, and it’s unlikely in the near future.

Those two elections were anomalies driven by large personalities — Cruz and O’Rourke, of course, but also Donald Trump. In 2018, Democrats and even some dissatisfied Republicans were itching to make a statement against the then-president. In 2020, they had a chance to do so directly.

So, when O’Rourke and Joe Biden narrowly won Tarrant County, it wasn’t evidence of an inevitable switch. After all, Republicans dominated the ballot in 2020 beyond the presidential line, even as Democrats made Texas House seats in the area a priority. Countywide, GOP candidates such as Sen. John Cornyn and Sheriff Bill Waybourn won easily.

We suspect Tuesday’s results will show largely the same. O’Rourke has paid great attention to Fort Worth, visiting 13 times during his run against Republican Gov. Greg Abbott (another frequent visitor who was here in the campaign’s final days). That work could pay off with another close Tarrant County win. But there’s little evidence of a huge surge for local Democrats. Their fundraising has been unimpressive, and few political professionals think Republicans such as county judge nominee Tim O’Hare or district attorney hopeful Phil Sorrells will break a sweat.

Too many have assumed Tarrant County’s booming population growth must bring with it a shift to the left. Some of those predictions are based, as with all of Texas, on growth among the Hispanic population. But Hispanic voters everywhere are in the midst of a realignment. More are voting Republican, particularly men. The majority will probably still go Democratic, but not at the large margins Democrats need to reverse decades of political atrophy.

Growth here has been dominated by north Fort Worth and the surrounding suburbs, which remain distinctly red. Grapevine, Southlake, Keller, northwest Tarrant County: These are the areas flush with new population. And they’re from everywhere — other parts of Texas, blue states, other red states. Many are drawn by economic opportunity, affordable property and conservative governance, so they vote Republican.

If Democrats again take substantial losses Tuesday, some of it will be the effect of impossible headwinds. A midterm election is almost always bad for the party that holds the White House, and this one looks especially grim for Democrats, given concerns over the economy and crime.

It’ll take a confluence of circumstances, including a much better political environment, for Tarrant County Democrats to break through. They can prepare the ground by investing more in party infrastructure and recruiting better candidates.

So, in that sense, Tarrant is indeed a bellwether for the state. Just perhaps not the way Democrats have hoped.