Pop quiz: Is the coronavirus pandemic getting better or worse in Tarrant County and Texas?

A blizzard of statistics is available to make either case. Daily reports of case counts add to the confusion, as they offer little detail of when someone contracted the virus or in what circumstances. The numbers might seem reassuring or scary, depending on how many tests have been conducted.

It doesn’t help that some politicians, media figures or even your friends on Facebook grab onto any number that bolsters their preferred side of the reopening debate. A huge number of new cases surely means that Texas and other states are sacrificing people in the name of the economy. A small share of tests turning up positive and a low death rate must be proof that power-hungry leaders are taking advantage of a chance to snatch our liberty for no good reason.

NASAL AND ANTIBODY TESTS

And it doesn’t help when there are errors or even outright manipulation in the reporting of COVID-19 data. Texas leaders acknowledged Thursday that the state’s testing numbers included both nasal swab and antibody tests. The first indicates current cases, while the presence of antibodies in the blood indicate someone has had the disease at some point.

Conflating the two is a problem, epidemiologists say, because we need to know how many people have the virus now to determine if it’s spreading. And when state health officials began calculating the numbers a different way, sure enough, the share of positive tests rose.

Texas is hardly alone in this mistake. The federal government’s health authority, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is doing it, too, along with several other states.

At least we’re not Georgia, where dates were listed out of order on a government bar graph so that, intentionally or not, cases appeared to be declining.

Those predisposed to think reopening is a disaster will take these errors as proof for their argument. But there’s manipulation there, too. Sean Trende, an analyst at Real Clear Politics, pointed out a pretty blatant case involving Texas.

CNN breathlessly reported a new high in daily cases reported in the state and linked it to Gov. Greg Abbott’s initial, modest reopening order. Trende noted several problems with the report, including that increases began before the reopening and, most importantly, more tests are being reported every day.

MORE TESTS, MORE CASES

The more tests that are done, the more cases that will be found. We should all be prepared for that and not overreact, as testing capacity continues to increase. Fort Worth and Arlington are opening testing to all retail workers, anyone older than 65 and those with medical conditions that make them more susceptible to the virus, whether they have symptoms or not.

The reality is that we’ve yet to see the full impact of reopening. More spread of the virus is inevitable. The question is, are we maintaining a proper balance of restarting life while preventing a rampant outbreak of the disease?

Accurate data is the only way to make that judgment. The governor continues to allow more businesses to open, and because he has taken full charge of the process, his political future is riding on the result. And Texans are clearly voting with their feet, too, steadily returning to salons, gyms, restaurants and, most recently, bars.

Decisions have yet to be made about how and when to allow larger gatherings, including sporting events. Schools and universities are trying to plan for a return in the fall semester. Only the most current, complete picture of the disease’s progress can make any of that possible.

So, where to look? Remember that the priority of “flattening the curve” was to protect the health system. That remains the case. We can’t let our hospitals be overwhelmed. So one of the most important metrics is hospital-bed availability. So far, so good in Tarrant County and statewide, but the full impact of the first wave of reopening probably hasn’t been felt yet. And it’s good news that we haven’t needed all the ventilators available.

It’s also useful to evaluate the very criteria for reopening suggested by the federal government. The nonprofit news site ProPublica has a valuable tool for tracking those in each state. It shows Texas meeting three of the five key metrics.

Finally, no statistic can change the underlying need for Texans to behave responsibly. Limit gatherings, keep your distance, and wear a mask when you’re in public.

Remember, the goal is to protect the vulnerable. It’s a blessing that young, healthy people are mostly able to survive the coronavirus. But it’s devastating to the elderly, particularly those with underlying health problems. If you can reduce the odds that you might carry the virus to someone else, you should.

Or, as Abbott puts it in a new public service announcement: “Be a good neighbor. Be a Texan.”