Hispanics will soon be the largest Texas group, able to shape elections

Images of tiny immigrant children held in chain link cages have rightly angered much of the nation. And though President Trump has rescinded the practice of separating the children from their parents, the fallout from the policy continues. It was a rallying cry for Texas Democrats at their annual convention which ended Saturday in Fort Worth.

“We need to get our people angry,” gubernatorial candidate Lupe Valdez told a packed room of several hundred Tejano Democrats. “Somos familia.”

“This is a bunch of crap,” Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said. “It’s our fault it’s happening. We have not gone to vote.”

This moment should be instructive in several ways for state Democrats and Republicans. The current border crisis may not resonate in the same way by November. Angry passions may cool, and the situation may change.

But immigration battles seem destined to continue. How they’re resolved —if they’re resolved — could define Texas’ political landscape in the future.

First, a little history. Then we want to point to the disproportionate political influence Hispanics are likely to have.

Low Hispanic turnout

Hinojosa is right. While voter turnout in Texas is abysmally low, it’s often worse for Hispanics than other ethnic groups.Their potential power isn’t being felt.

In the 2016 presidential election just 40.5 percent of eligible Hispanic voters cast ballots which was less than the turnout among Texas Anglos, Blacks, or Asians.

Second, emerging demographics in Texas give Hispanics an opportunity to shape the state’s political map if they can boost their numbers at the polls.

Hispanic Texans to become a majority

Population projections released last week by the U.S. Census Bureau show Hispanics becoming Texas’ largest group in 2022, just four years away.

And if Hispanics finally embrace their voting potential they could keep Republicans in power or turn Texas purple then blue.

What, you say? More Hispanics could help Republicans maintain power? Aren’t Hispanic voters Democrats?

The answer to that is, not always, especially not in Texas.

Hispanic support for Texas Republicans vs. nationally

Texas Republicans tend to do better than national Republicans in attracting Hispanic voters. Donald Trump, for example, received just 34 percent of their vote in 2016, while John Cornyn had about 48 percent in 2014. Greg Abbott and George W. Bush have also received more than 40 percent while Ted Cruz appears to have had less than 40 percent in 2012.

So far that, combined with strong Anglo backing, has made Republicans dominant statewide.

Jim Henson, Director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, is right when he says, “Democrats don’t have a monopoly on the Hispanic vote.” Some embrace Republican candidates because they identify them with jobs, business opportunity, and opposition to abortion, something important to many Hispanic Catholics.

Effect of harsh anti-immigration rhetoric

Henson cautions, however, that because of the current messaging from the White House and the national Republican Party on issues like immigration, “Hispanics might not feel comfortable in the Republican Party.” The separation of migrant children underscored that with a majority of Texas Democrats and Hispanics opposing the policy while less than half of Texas Republicans polled said the separation was OK.

“If Republicans are defined by harsh rhetoric aimed at Hispanics, it’s a problem,” says Matt Mackowiak, a Texas-based Republican consultant, noting the growing Hispanic presence in Texas.

Mackowiak believes it was important for Texas leaders to disavow the separation policy as many did this past week.

“Republicans cannot consistently lose a majority of the fastest growing group in Texas and remain in power.”

What happens- or doesn’t- with immigration reform in Washington could have a strong bearing on how Hispanics in Texas identify politically.

Not all agree how to secure the border or how illegal immigration should be addressed.

It’s arrogant for either party to think it has a lock on Hispanic support.

The party and candidates who respect the community, who support the wisest policies on immigration and other measures, deserve the right to govern.

This story was originally published June 23, 2018 at 4:49 PM with the headline "Hispanics will soon be the largest Texas group, able to shape elections."