John Cornyn tied with Ken Paxton for Senate; Allred pulls even, but ...
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn has pulled even with challenger Ken Paxton in the race for the Republican Party Senate nomination, according to the latest poll from two Houston public affairs schools.
In a shocking outcome that indicates how close the 2026 race is, Dallas Democrat Colin Allred is in a virtual tie with either Cornyn or Paxton in the general election for Senate. But Allred is running fourth for his own party’s nomination in the primary.
Round Rock Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, challenging Allred for that party’s nomination, trails Cornyn or Paxton by 3 points, 48%-45% or 49%-46%, in a general-election matchup.
That’s just outside the margin of error for a tie race in the YouGov online poll of 1,183 registered voters Sept. 19-Oct. 1 by political scientists at the University of Houston and Texas Southern University. Paxton technically leads Allred, 48%-47%, and Cornyn leads Allred, 48%-46%, both considered a virtual tie within the margin of error.
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (31%) of Dallas leads Talarico (25%) and Allred (13%) in the poll for the Democratic nomination, but she has not announced as a candidate. Former candidate Beto O’Rourke, also not yet a candidate, drew 25%.
More than half of Texas voters — 52% — now have an unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump, according to the poll published at uh.edu/hobby/txtrends/2025.
Trump remains more popular with Republican voters than any Texas Republican elected official.
In the poll, 87% of Republicans rate Trump favorably, compared to 84% for Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz, 70% for Paxton, 68% for Cornyn and 65% of Republicans for Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Paxton had the highest unfavorable rating at 24%.
U.S. Rep. Chip Roy has a runaway 40%-12% lead over state Sen. Joan Huffman in the race for the Republican nomination in Paxton’s attorney general seat, according to the poll.
The U.S Senate polls indicate a rally for Cornyn, who had trailed Paxton by an average of 4 points in recent polls.
U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, a new entry in the Senate race, drew 22% of the primary vote.
But the polls also gave Democrats hope of winning their first U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1993.
Cornyn had led Allred by 5 points and Paxton had a 3-point lead over Allred in other recent polls.
A few polls in September 2024 showed Allred tied with U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in a race Cruz eventually won by 8%.
This story was originally published October 9, 2025 at 7:00 AM.
