Yes, it’s a close race. But Beto and Democrats are still in deep trouble. Here’s why.
Texas Democrats don’t have much chance to break their 28-year election losing streak.
Last week, we saw another reason why.
Democrats’ problem is policy, not personality. It’s more than Beto O’Rourke can overcome.
According to one of the state’s leading polls, Texans think Republicans and Gov. Greg Abbott are better at leading state government in nearly every area — crime and punishment, economic success, budget and taxes.
O’Rourke and Democrats are rated equal with Republicans on education, healthcare and gun laws.
But even after Abbott’s tumultuous second term, O’Rourke is rated better at handling only one single state issue: abortion.
One of the party’s biggest weaknesses is that many rural Texans do not even know a Democrat.
In one-fifth of Texas — 56 of its 254 counties — there is no organized county party or leader, according to texasdemocrats.org.
But that doesn’t fully explain the party’s shortfall in the new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll.
At the top of the fall ballot, Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton lead Democratic opponents Mike Collier and Rochelle Garza by 5 to 7 points, not unexpected in a Republican-leaning state reacting to a Democrat in the White House.
Border worries and money — not gun laws or abortion — remain Texans’ top two issues.
“Democrats need to focus on the economy,” said Kimi King, a professor of political science at the University of North Texas in Denton.
In Texas, winning is always about public safety, job growth and business success.
Yes, campaigning on gun laws and abortion rights appeals to voters who are already Democrats.
But swing voters want to hear about the border.
In particular, they want to hear about their property tax bills.
“In the past, guns and abortion haven’t mobilized people in the same way that the economy and immigration seem to be doing,” King said.
Only 17% of women on either side said abortion is the No. 1 issue.
On guns, O’Rourke’s comment that “we are going to take away your AR-15” in 2019 still reverberates, said Eric McDaniel of the University of Texas at Austin.
That comment “is seen as support for lawlessness,” McDaniel wrote in an email, while “Abbott is seen as competent and a job creator.”
Lots of Texans get their political news from cable TV. So, Professor Brandon Rottinghaus of the University of Houston said, voters are stereotyping the candidates.
In the world of cable news, “Democrats are the party of ‘defund police,’ and Republicans are ‘tough on crime,’ ” he wrote.
The national divide makes it tough for O’Rourke to draw crossover voters
“Changing that perception is near impossible,” Rottinghaus wrote.
This does not look like the year.
This story was originally published September 16, 2022 at 9:33 AM.
