Will Ken Paxton win? Who’ll lead the Tarrant courthouse? Many decisions, few voters
Texas’ biggest and most important election is Tuesday.
The bad news: It’s not over.
The same campaigns that have been stuffing your mailbox for weeks will be sending mailers until the runoff May 24.
Why?
Because in Texas, these elections mean everything.
Since 1994, the Republican Party primary election and runoff have decided the countywide and statewide leaders in Tarrant County and Texas for the next four years.
With a Republican runoff likely for criminal district attorney — and probably also for Texas attorney general — those candidates will keep telling you how tough they are on everything, including stuff they don’t even handle. For example, border crossings.
At the courthouse, Southlake activist Tim O’Hare and former Fort Worth Mayor Betsy Price will get three more months to argue who would make the best — or worst — leader as Tarrant County judge. They’re only getting started.
(Of note: Early voting was heaviest in the Keller-Southlake part of Tarrant County. Fort Worth has not won the county judge’s seat in 26 years.)
In another courthouse runoff, constable “Jody” Johnson of the Silver Creek neighborhood and police labor leader Manny Ramirez of the Eagle Mountain Lake area will probably face off again in May for a county commissioner seat alongside the new county judge.
With major runoffs driving Tarrant County turnout, then more statewide candidates will campaign here.
Tarrant County is the No. 2 largest mother lode of Republican votes in Texas, after Harris County.
So look for either George P. Bush, Eva Guzman or Louie Gohmert to hang out more here — that is, if any of the three pushes Attorney General Ken Paxton of McKinney into a runoff.
Texas Democrats also will face a crowded runoff May 24.
They’ll probably need it to settle candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general to complete the party ticket beneath gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke.
Locally, Democrats might also face runoffs for Tarrant County district attorney and for the Texas House District 92 nomination.
In other words, the election this Tuesday is big.
But the turnout for the May runoff actually might be bigger.
Remember last year’s Fort Worth city election?
Almost 67,000 city voters went to the polls in May to choose a new mayor. But in June, 88,000 voters turned out for the runoff after a campaign in which contenders spent a combined $2 million.
This year, the May runoff turnout could easily exceed the piddling 12%-14% expected Tuesday, particularly if there’s an O’Hare-Price runoff.
In a runoff, anyone who didn’t vote in the first election can choose either primary. It doesn’t matter at all how they plan to vote in the fall.
By May, more voters also will have learned the new rules to vote by mail.
Mail voting in Tarrant County was down by more than half last week compared to the same voting period in March 2018.
Republicans accounted for almost the entire decline, most probably shifting to in-person voting.
A few major races will actually be settled Tuesday.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat O’Rourke are a near-cinch for nomination, along with Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. On the Democratic side, either Deborah Peoples of Fort Worth or Marvin Sutton of Arlington will be chosen as the party’s nominee for county judge.
At the bottom of the ballot, 27-year District Clerk Tom Wilder of Bedford is facing challenger Larry Mike of Arlington.
And in one of the most bizarre races, county Republican Chairman Rick Barnes of Keller is challenged by Jeff Marshall, a recent newcomer campaigning to “Make Tarrant County Red Again.”
It’s been nearly solid red since 1994.
This story was originally published February 26, 2022 at 5:05 AM.
