Greg Abbott has 9-point lead over Beto O’Rourke in poll; McConaughey’s support wavers
Texans aren’t happy with our leaders in Austin.
But we’re not upset enough to change them.
That’s the takeaway from the first major state poll for the March 2022 primary, with candidate filing set to begin this week.
Nearly half of voters in the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll said they “disapprove” of Gov. Greg Abbott.
Yet he still holds a dominant 9-point lead over potential Democratic opponent Beto O’Rourke, and that says something.
“Governor Abbott doubled down on conservative policies, and it paid off,” said University of North Texas political science professor Kimi King.
O’Rourke stirs talk, she said, but “the best thing he brings is his ability to raise money for the party.”
A year away from the election, O’Rourke was preferred by only 37% of the 1,200 registered voters — not necessarily likely voters —in the poll Oct. 22-31, before Republicans were energized by nationwide success in elections Tuesday.
That’s close to the 35% who approve of President Joe Biden, indicating that Texas Democrats remain stuck in their decades-long pattern.
Year in, year out, Democrats draw about 40% of the Texas vote.
Only when they draw a large share of independents — about 10% of the vote — can they make a statewide race close.
“O’Rourke just doesn’t have much room to grow his support,” said SMU associate professor Matthew Wilson. “The vast majority of Texans already know him, and they generally don’t like him.”
UT Arlington associate dean Rebecca Deen said the poll’s good news for Abbott “reflects the work he has put in to shore up his standing among the most conservative voters.”
Less than four months before the March 1 primary, Abbott holds a commanding 43-point lead over his Republican challengers.
His closest challenger is former congressman and state Republican Party Chairman Allen West of Garland at 13%. Highland Park Republican Don Huffines, a former state senator, drew 7%, and Burleson Republican Chad Prather, an entertainer, had 4%. (The poll has a 4 percentage-point margin of error, meaning results can vary by that much in either direction.)
“I found it interesting that his Republican primary challengers didn’t poll better,” Deen said.
Also, the notion of a Matthew McConaughey campaign is not necessarily all right.
The Austin actor, a Longview product, was rated favorably by 35% of those polled. But 24% of Texas voters had an unfavorable view.
Embattled Attorney General Ken Paxton actually came closer than Abbott to a positive approval rating. At 35%-37%, his rating was within the 3 percentage-point margin of error in that section.
The closest Republican primary race is current Land Commissioner George P. Bush’s challenge to Paxton.
But Bush still trails Paxton by 32 points, 48%-16%, with Fort Worth Republican state Rep. Matt Krause at 3% and former state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman at 2%.
“Paxton continues to hold on even though he has had any number of challenges,” said King, the UNT professor.
A substantial 27% of voters in that race remain undecided.
Yes, Texas Democrats have close races for the nomination for lieutenant governor and attorney general. Two-thirds of those voters remain undecided.
University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus said Abbott’s position is “strong but not insurmountable.”
Abbott, a 13-point winner in the 2018 gubernatorial election over Dallas Democrat Lupe Valdez, has weathered a barrage of controversies. Among them are the state’s electrical grid problems, his management of the coronavirus pandemic and his calling lawmakers back to Austin repeatedly to fine-tune laws, including new voting restrictions.
Yet Texans seem to blame Biden for economic and health issues, Rottinghaus said.
On O’Rourke, Rottinghaus said: “Simply put, Texans know him but don’t necessarily like him.“
Voters don’t like anybody very much right now.
And we haven’t even started 2022.
This story was originally published November 5, 2021 at 8:53 AM.
