Are COVID-19 case numbers true? Recoveries called a wild guess, ‘bizarre, ‘a stretch’
One number about coronavirus is a total sham.
It’s not the number of cases or deaths.
It’s the high number some politicians promote as “recoveries.”
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, politicians across small-town Texas have tried to fake a brighter picture by announcing a falsely high number of “recovered cases” that is nothing more than an overly sunny guess.
Let’s take Colleyville as an example.
In that suburban city, anyone who’s had the virus 14 days is announced as “recovered.”
Based on hospital and medical data, the daily report from Tarrant County officials Thursday showed that 79 people there have active cases, along with 89 recovered for a total of 168 cases.
But based on which day they were tested, Colleyville is taking a low-ball guess that only 44 people currently have the virus. The city considers the other 124, even those in the hospital, as “recovered.”
(Either way, the numbers are going back down. Two weeks ago, the city announced it had 56 active cases. That was the height of infections from the July 4 holiday weekend and family activities. Some Texas school districts are delaying classroom instruction to get past any similar Labor Day weekend spike, but that’s a different column.)
So are 79 people in Colleyville still sick with COVID-19? Or is it only 44?
In part, it comes down to nomenclature.
The way Colleyville figures it, 44 people tested positive in the last two weeks and must remain in isolation. That’s what matters.
But based on the more accurate estimate by the Texas Department of State Health Services, about 10 more people may have been sick longer, or may be in acute care, ICU, palliative or hospice care.
The state of Texas does not count them as “recovered.”
Colleyville is not the only city or agency announcing fluffed-up, overreaching recovery numbers. But it is one of few in Texas to simply announce everyone as cured after 14 days.
That’s “definitely a stretch,” said Diana Cervantes, a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of North Texas Health Science Center in Fort Worth.
“For some people, seeing the number of ‘recovered’ is a hopeful thing,” said Angela G. Clendenin, an instructional assistant professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the Texas A&M School of Public Health in College Station.
“They see cases. It’s this never-ending number ... But reporting ‘recoveries’ is really hard. After 14 days, we don’t really know.”
Dr. Justin Fairless of Colleyville, a board member of the Texas College of Emergency Physicians, called counting systems like his city’s “bizarre, but not at all surprising.”
“This is a political scheme to artificially deflate the numbers in an attempt to provide the false notion that Colleyville has a lower incidence of cases than it truly does,” he wrote in an online message.
Colleyville Mayor Richard Newton and City Manager Jerry Ducay were very open about the city’s system and took or returned several phone calls to discuss it.
“it’s real simple math to us,” Newton said. “ ... The vast majority of cases recover in 14 days.”
We talked about the state formula for counting “estimated recoveries.”
The state estimates that 80% of those testing positive recover after 14 days, but 20% are hospitalized and recover after 32 days.
(In Texas, 1.5% of cases have died. You can see the giant disclaimer on the case dashboard at dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus.)
“Active cases out in the community is what we worry about,” Newton said.
He’s more adamant now about safety.
“To me, it’s just flat common sense to take the safety precautions,” said Newton, 71.
“Wear a mask. Wash your hands often. Don’t touch your face. .... The older you are, the more careful you need to be.”
He promised to reconsider the city’s formula for estimating “recoveries” and to look at the state method.
But the American Public Health Association does not even consider such wild guesses as worth announcing.
If you’re guessing everyone’s well after 14 days, Cervantes said, that “just makes the assumption that ‘no news is good news.’ “
Just tell us the truth.
This story was originally published July 31, 2020 at 11:43 AM.
