Are Texas' five largest school districts still growing under statewide enrollment loss?

Texas public school enrollment has declined as the state expanded public education offerings beyond traditional school districts to charter campuses and private school vouchers. Families have more schooling choices than ever, and the state's five largest school districts aren't immune to the changes.

Three of the state's largest districts in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio are reeling from plunging enrollment. Meanwhile, two large Houston-area districts that have historically enjoyed growth from new development are adjusting to changes in enrollment trends, according to news reports and the districts' own estimates.

Enrollment projections for fall 2026 suggest that San Antonio's Northside Independent School District, long positioned as the state's fourth-largest, could soon drop to No. 5, surpassed in enrollment by Katy ISD near Houston.

Texas' largest district, Houston ISD, has reported declines of more than 30,000 students in 10 years, with 2025-26 student numbers of about 168,000 - 8,000 fewer than a year earlier. The district expects to lose another 4,000 students in 2026-27.

HISD, which has been under a state takeover since 2023, recently announced it would eliminate 300 central office employees this summer and close 12 schools, including nine elementary and two middle school campuses. An alternative high school will be consolidated with another campus.

How are other large districts faring?

Across the state, public school enrollment fell from a peak of 5.54 million students in 2024-25 to 5.47 million in 2025-26. A report from the public policy think tank Texas 2036 estimated public schools could lose 100,000 more students by 2030.

Dallas ISD, the second largest district in Texas with about 134,000 students, has seen a 15% enrollment decline in the past decade, according to TEA data. It's a much different situation than 30 years ago, when the district was consistently growing by about 5,000 students annually and on track to top 160,000. The district recently approved a $1.8 billion operating budget for next year that includes a $104 million shortfall, attributed to reduced state funding and lower enrollment.

Cypress-Fairbanks ISD near Houston, ranked No. 3 in the state with 115,000 students, had one of the state's highest enrollment growth rates of about 2,000 students annually in the late 1990s. But it lost more than 3,200 students in the past year, and could have 4,000 to 8,000 fewer students in the next four years, officials recently projected.

The district has seen charter schools within its boundaries roughly triple in the past decade, going from fewer than 50 to more than 140. The district estimates some 12,000 students in its boundaries attend charter schools, with another 4,000 enrolled at private schools.

What about Northside ISD?

The state's five largest districts are rounded out by Northside, which had about 97,620 students in the 2025-26 school year, and Katy ISD, which has tripled from just over 34,000 students in 2000 to over 95,000 reported this year.

For the fall, Northside has planned for 95,500 students in its 2026-2027 budget, while Katy's enrollment projections have ranged from about 95,500 to more than 97,000. Katy ISD is projecting a budget deficit next year of nearly $30 million after adjusting for at least 1,600 fewer students than projected.

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Northside, whose enrollment peaked at 107,817 in 2020, right before the COVID-19 pandemic, has been the fourth-largest district for about 20 years. It was steadily growing by about 1,500 students annually in the early 2000s, then hit a spurt of 3,000 more in 2002, when its enrollment was around 69,000. New housing and good test scores were key factors attributed to the growth.

But amid growing competition in recent years with charters, magnet programs in neighboring districts, private schools, homeschooling and online learning options, the district is pivoting in response to declining enrollment. Northside this year estimated it had about 18,400 school-age children in its boundaries who weren't attending NISD schools. The district is weighing whether to ask voters in November for a 3-cent tax rate increase to provide pay raises for its 11,000-plus employees and to reduce a $31.6 million budget deficit for 2027.

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