Sanders and Biden deadlocked in Texas a week ahead of Super Tuesday, new poll says
A new poll of likely voters in Texas puts Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden in a “virtual toss-up” to win the primary election March 3.
The University of Houston poll, released a week before Super Tuesday, puts Sen. Elizabeth Warren in third place among likely voters in the Democratic primary.
“Democratic voters in Texas say beating President Trump in November is their top criterion in choosing a candidate, but their choices suggest they don’t agree on the best way to do that,” said Jim Granato, executive director of the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston.
“Voters were almost evenly split between moderate Joe Biden, a former vice president, and progressive Bernie Sanders,” Granado said. The Hobby School of Public Affairs conducted the poll.
According to the poll, released Monday, here’s where the candidates stand with likely voters in Texas:
- Joe Biden: 22.5%
- Bernie Sanders: 22.1%
- Elizabeth Warren: 18.3%
- Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg: 13.4%
- Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg: 11.9%
- Sen. Amy Klobuchar: 7.2%
- Rep. Tulsi Gabbard: 3.5%
- Tom Steyer: 1.1%
Candidates need to reach the threshold of at least 15% of the vote to earn statewide delegates who will choose the party’s nominee at the Democratic National Convention this summer to challenge President Donald Trump.
Political scientist Mark Jones, who is a researcher at the Hobby School, said African American voters put Biden over the top in the poll.
“Biden was the top choice of 46% of African Americans, while Sanders was the top choice of Hispanic voters, at 30%,” according to the poll.
“Without his robust African American support, Biden would have been in third place, behind Sanders and Warren,” Jones said.
“That support from African American voters also explains his higher support in the Houston metro area, where almost 30% of voters said they will support Biden, and his relatively lower support in metro areas with smaller African American populations,” Jones said in a news release announcing the results.
“The polling suggests that while Texas Democrats favor a moderate candidate, that moderate vote is currently split between Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar,” Hobby School senior director Renée Cross said.
Gender was also a factor in how people planned to vote. The poll states, “Male voters are more likely than women to favor Biden (25% to 21%) and Buttigieg (15% to 10%), and women are more likely to favor Warren (21% to 14%) and Bloomberg (16% to 10%).”
“Sanders drew equal support from both genders, at just over 22%,” the poll said.
Texas will dole out 228 delegates after the votes are all counted. There are 3,979 delegates available overall across the U.S. — and a candidate needs to win at least 1,991 of them to have a majority of pledged delegates outright and avoid a brokered convention.
So far, Sanders leads with 35 delegates following the first three contests in Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire. Buttigieg is in second with 24 delegates, followed by Biden with 10, Warren with 8 and Klobuchar with 7.
“Based on the poll, Sanders is predicted to earn 85 delegates in Texas, compared with 80 for Biden and 61 for Warren. Bloomberg and Buttigieg are predicted to earn one delegate each,” the school said.
Texans will go to the polls on Super Tuesday with 13 other states, when more than a third of all delegates are up for grabs.
This story was originally published February 24, 2020 at 12:49 PM.
