Jasmine Crockett, Ken Paxton widen leads in new Texas Senate polls
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Crockett leads Talarico 47%-39% in UH poll of 550 likely Democrats.
- Paxton leads Cornyn 38%-31% in GOP poll; Hunt at 17%.
- General-election polls: Paxton/Cornyn lead Democrats narrowly, within MOE.
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas has an 8-point lead over state Rep. James Talarico in the latest of several fluctuating polls in the race for the Democratic Party nomination for U.S. Senate.
Crockett is also regarded more favorably than Talarico in the Jan. 20-Jan. 31 poll of 550 likely Democratic voters by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston.
In the Republican primary, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton stretched his consistent lead over incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn to 38%-31%, with U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17%.
If no candidate wins a majority in the March 3 primary, that race will be decided in a May 26 runoff.
Crockett led Talarico in the poll, 47%-39%. It was conducted before former Senate candidate Colin Allred endorsed Crockett on Feb. 2.
In a dramatic video, Allred lashed back at Talarico for criticizing his 2024 campaign as “mediocre” in a private conversation. Allred had heard a podcaster say Talarico called hm a “mediocre Black man.” Talarico has said that his comment was misinterpreted and that he was criticizing Allred’s failed campaign against Sen. Ted Cruz.
Crockett leads overall among both men and women, according to the poll. Talarico leads among white voters, among Latino men and among voters with college degrees.
The poll comes after an early January survey by Crockett’s campaign showed her with a 46%-33% lead. But a later poll by Texas Public Opinion Research showed the race as a dead heat.
A survey by Emerson College Polling had Talarico up, 47%-38%.
In the Republican primary, 550 voters polled by the Hobby School gave Paxton the edge, while 72% of them had a favorable view of him to 70% for Hunt and 61% for Cornyn.
Cornyn was viewed as “unfavorable” by 30% to Paxton’s 22% and Hunt’s 10%.
Cornyn leads among Latino voters, but Paxton leads all other voter groups, according to the poll.
In the general election, a poll of 1,502 voters did not give either party an edge.
Paxton and Cornyn both led Crockett or Talarico narrowly, 45%-43% or 46%-44%, but within the 2.53% margin of error.
“The poll suggests that there is little difference between the respective Republican and Democratic candidates in regard to their performance in November,” according to the UH news release.
Texas voters are also split evenly about President Donald Trump.
By 50%-49% — basically a tie, considering the margin of error — they disapproved of his performance.
Among those polled, 56% said they voted for Trump in 2024, but only 51% said they would again.
However, those voters said they are now unsure how they would vote, or if they would vote at all. Democrat Kamala Harris’ total remained at 43%.
Overall, Crockett has the most favorable rating of all Senate candidates at 45%, while Talarico has the highest net favorability rating at plus-20%, 43%-23%. Cornyn and Paxton have the highest unfavorable ratings, both at 48%.
Paxton and Cornyn have been locked in a dead heat in polls since September. A pro-Paxton poll released Feb. 6 by Pulse Decision Science showed Paxton leading Cornyn, 34%-26%.
This story was originally published February 9, 2026 at 7:00 AM.
