How a national referendum on Donald Trump played in a North Texas Senate race
Despite the district’s solid-red reputation, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the most votes in a Tuesday special election for vacant Senate District 9.
The district, represented by Kelly Hancock since 2013, encompasses northern Tarrant County and much of Fort Worth, and spans into Keller and Southlake. It went for Trump in 2024, 58% to 41% for former Vice President Kamala Harris. Hancock’s Democratic opponent won 40% of votes in a 2022 election for the seat.
But Rehmet, in a special election that aligned with a statewide constitutional election, won 47.6% percent of votes. He’s headed to a runoff with Republican Leigh Wambsganss, who captured 36% of votes. The other Republican in the race, former Southlake Mayor John Huffman, won 16.5%.
So what’s behind Rehmet’s lead? The union leader from Fort Worth was hesitant to speculate in an election night interview. Perhaps it comes down to his humble background and being an honest person, he said.
“I really believe that people can see through all the polish and all the fancy money behind certain politicians, because what matters whenever it comes to representation is, does this person have the integrity needed?” Rehmet said. “Does the person have the drive?”
But experts say his win can partially be seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump, in line with Democratic successes across the country Tuesday night.
“This was a night for Democrats to express their discontent with Trump,” said Jim Riddlespergerger, a TCU political science professor.
Now, Rehmet and Wambsganss will work to get the votes needed to win the coming runoff — a date for which hasn’t been set.
And Republicans can’t sit back if they want to keep the district red.
“We cannot take the runoff for granted,” said Tarrant County Commissioner Matt Krause in a social media post. Krause previously served in the Texas House. “The Democrat candidate also had a strong showing which should be a wakeup call to all Republicans in SD 9.”
A national referendum and Rehmet’s lead
Democratic candidate victories played out across the country Tuesday.
In New York, Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, defeated Republican Curtis Sliwa and former New York Gov. Andrew Como, running as an independent.
Moderate Democrats won bids for governor in Virginia and New Jersey.
And then at home in North Texas.
“It’s just a different thing when a Democrat runs this strong in a Republican district,” said SMU Political Science Professor Cal Jillson.
There are Democratic voters in the district, though they’ve typically been outnumbered by Republicans, so it’s not a surprise Rehmet would advance to a runoff or even clinch the first place spot, said Riddlesperger.
“But the fact that he got in the upper 40 percent was, in fact, quite surprising,” Riddlesperger said.
There are a few factors that likely played into Rehmet’s election night success.
Experts interviewed by the Star-Telegram pointed to his focus on “kitchen table” issues like jobs, income and education.
Rehmet, an aircraft mechanic, U.S. Air Force veteran and the president of the state and local chapters of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union, consistently said he’s running a campaign for the working person while on the campaign trail.
“I have to stay true to my message,” Rehmet said, looking ahead to the runoff in a Tuesday interview. He added: “My message has been the same since I entered this race. I am fighting for working Texans. I believe it’s a unifying issue. I want to find what unifies us here in Texas.”
But also contributing to his victory was a desire for Democrats to show opposition to Trump — even if the president wasn’t explicitly on the ballot. Experts said the referendum, to some degree, also extends to state leadership, like Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a Trump surrogate who, like the president, endorsed Wambsganss.
“There’s certainly a lot of concern from voters that the politicians in power aren’t doing enough to help them,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor.
Texas Democratic Party Chair Allison Campolo also sees the outcome as a rebuke of Republican leadership, including Trump. Rehmet’s favorable outcome is also a signal of the Democrat’s successful campaign, she said.
“Here in Texas, so many of us are represented by so many terrible Republicans who are very extremist, and I think this is a big pushback against everything that’s been happening this year, everything since November 2024,” Campolo said Tuesday night at Rehmet’s watch party.
Tarrant County Republican Party Chair Bo French declined to comment at Wambsganss’ election night watch party, though he told the Star-Telegram’s Bud Kennedy: “Conservatives do well. ... And we don’t want casinos in Texas.”
Casino interests’ support of Huffman was a clashing point between the former Southlake mayor and Wambsganss while on the campaign trail. It was just one of the sparring points between the two Republican campaigns and their supporters.
Voters’ fatigue for partisan bickering favored Rehmet, Rottinghaus said.
“Voters wanted to find some degree of normalcy in all the political chaos,” he said.
Now, Republicans must be united, Wambsganss said Tuesday night.
“This is a time when Republicans need to come together and make sure that we fight to keep Texas red,” she said.
Hancock on Wednesday offered his endorsement of Wambsganss for his former seat, echoing Wambsganss’ call for Republican unity.
“Every single Republican in SD-9 MUST unite behind Leigh – we cannot let Democrats win this seat and push their radical agenda on our families, schools, and businesses,” Hancock said.
How Rehmet, Wambsganss win
Wambsganss, who works as Patriot Mobiles’ chief communication officer, is better positioned in her path to victory come runoff time, Rottinghaus said. Her key to success will be getting Republican voters to turn out, he said.
“She’s in a better position because it’s a Republican leaning district and getting Republicans to vote in these runoffs is an easier task than getting Democrats or independents to come vote,” Rottinghaus said.
Wambsganss said her runoff message remains the same as in the first round of voting.
“I’m there to fight for faith, family and freedom, just like the over three decades that I’ve spent my life doing for Texas and for conservative values,” she said, highlighting issues like lowering property taxes, supporting first responders, border security and education.
Jillson expects Rehmet to continue focusing on the “kitchen table issues.”
“Because that resonated in the election yesterday,” Jillson said.
Rehmet will also likely work to win over Huffman supporters, Riddlesperger said.
“It’s hard for a Democrat to make arguments that will appeal to Republican voters, but it certainly can be done, and it has to be done,” Riddlesperger said.
What do Huffman voters do?
“I think many of the Huffman voters stay home,” Jillson said. “Most of the rest, I think, go to Wambsganss. A few go to Rehmet, and the race is close.”
And then there’s Trump’s endorsement, featured prominently in Wambsganss’ bid. Wambsganss will have to weigh focusing on her support for Trump versus a focus on topics beyond social issues, Jillson said.
The president’s support is a double-edged sword, Rottinghaus said.
“It helps her among core Republican voters, who are more likely to turn out in a runoff to a special election,” Rottinghaus said. “But it obviously ties her to Trump’s economy, which a lot of people are frustrated by.”
