Paxton vs. Beto? O’Rourke leads Democratic Senate primary by 20 in new poll
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Beto O’Rourke leads Colin Allred by 20 points in Democratic Senate poll.
- Ken Paxton holds a 5-point lead over John Cornyn in GOP Senate primary race.
- Paxton and O’Rourke remain central in legal dispute ahead of Sept. 2 hearing.
Attorney General Ken Paxton and El Paso Democrat Beto O’Rourke, locked in a Tarrant County court dispute, now lead the races for their parties’ U.S. Senate nominations, according to a new poll released Aug. 18 by Texas Southern University.
The Republican race between Paxton and incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn has tightened but Paxton still leads, 44%-39%, according to a text-message poll of 1,500 likely Republican voters Aug. 6-12 by researchers at TSU.
In a matching poll of Democratic voters, the barnstorming O’Rourke has taken a 20-point lead over 2024 nominee Allred, 58-38%.
Allred has announced that he is running again. O’Rourke, defeated for Senate in 2018 and for governor in 2022, has yet to say whether he will run for any office in the primary March 3.
The poll did not test Dallas U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett for Senate against O’Rourke or Allred. But Crockett’s approval rating among Democratic voters is plus-80 (83% favorable, 3% unfavorable). That was second among Democrats only to O’Rourke’s plus-89, though Allred scores high with Texas Democrats, too.
Allred continues to lead Austin state Rep. James Talarico and San Antonio U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro in the poll. Neither has entered the race.
The Cornyn-Paxton poll is the newest to show the race tightening after earlier polls showed Paxton with a wide lead.
In a smaller Emerson College poll Aug, 11-12, coinciding with the TSU poll, Cornyn and Paxton came out in a dead heat. Technically Cornyn led, 30%-29%, but the 1-point difference is within a 4.4% margin of error.
Paxton had the higher approval rating of plus-19 (58%-39%) compared to Cornyn’s plus-5 (50%-45%).
But both Paxton and Cornyn had Republicans’ lowest approval ratings, trailing President Donald Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott, Sen. Ted Cruz, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Austin campaign donor Elon Musk.
O’Rourke and Paxton await a Sept. 2 hearing in a Tarrant County district court on Paxton’s Aug. 8 lawsuit to prevent O’Rourke’s nonprofit, Powered by People, from raising money for Texas House Democrats to leave the state during their recent quorum break. Paxton’s filing also asked Judge Megan Fahey to hold O’Rourke in contempt of court.
“Cry more, lib,” Paxton wrote to O’Rourke on X.com Aug, 8, saying he is “working to put [Beto] behind bars.”
At a Fort Worth rally, O’Rourke said Paxton “wants to silence me ... But I’m not going anywhere.”
This story was originally published August 19, 2025 at 6:00 AM.
