Public health experts: Abbott must follow coronavirus data to reopen Texas
Public health experts say Gov. Greg Abbott’s limited, gradual strategy to reopen Texas can be safe — if Texas continues to follow the data and if Texas can get more of it.
“He mentioned several times the data would drive what happens, and that is music to public health’s ears,” said Catherine Troisi, an infectious disease epidemiologist at UTHealth School of Public Health in Houston.
Abbott, in a series of executive orders on Friday, announced that in the next week state parks would reopen, non-essential businesses will be allowed to engage in delivery and pickup and hospitals will be able to perform some non-elective surgeries. Schools will remain closed for the rest of the 2019-20 year.
Flanked by Lieutenant Gov. Dan Patrick, House Speaker Dennis Bonnen and other officials, Abbott hinted a greater change could be on the horizon: the potential reopening of restaurants, movie theaters and other similar venues to the public, as early as April 27. To get there he said Texas must know its coronavirus count is going down. “If the data continues to show a flat-lining and then a decline in the number of people testing positive in the state of Texas, that is a signal that we can begin the process of opening up some businesses that adhere to the strictest strategies that will reduce the spread of coronavirus,” Abbott said.
His executive orders were the first to address bringing normalcy back to Texas, an argument that has raged since cities and counties — and then Abbott — enacted stay-at-home regulations. Medical workers and public health experts have insisted staying home is necessary to keep coronavirus infections down and prevent hospitals from seeing an influx of patients. Influential conservatives, including Patrick and Empower Texans, have argued the economic costs of the shutdown are greater than the health costs of the virus and advocated for a quick return to normal.
Troisi said next week’s steps, the reopening of parks and addition of retail delivery, are not a significant change to what Texas has been doing. But the reopening of restaurants or movie theaters, even with limited occupancy, would require Texas’ coronavirus count to be trending downward.
“I would say right now we do not have enough data (to count the cases) because of a lack of testing,” Troisi said.
Texas had about 17,000 coronavirus cases as of Friday and had tested nearly 170,000 people. The state is near the bottom in per capita testing among all states.
Abbott said at Friday’s press conference “a massive amount” of testing options would reach Texas by late April or early May. John Hellerstedt, the commissioner of the Texas Department of State Health Services said the state had a more reliable supply of testing kits. Neither offered specific details of how the increase in testing would work when asked follow up questions by reporters.
“The concern is, have we even reached the peak yet? If we had been able to test more people that would be a little bit easier,” said Neale Chumbler, dean of the College of Health and Public Service at the University of North Texas. “I think we’re going down an unclear territory.”
And regardless of how Abbott chooses to further open the economy, it will be up to regular Texans to continue making smart, individual choices with social distancing.
“The challenge will be if people will drop their guard over the next couple weeks or so,” Chumbler said, “and we have outbreaks here and there.”
This story was originally published April 17, 2020 at 5:33 PM.
