Low turnout means a few hundred votes could decide who will be Fort Worth’s mayor
Just a few hundred votes may decide who advances past Saturday’s election to the June runoff for Fort Worth mayor.
Fort Worth’s chronically low voter turnout underscores the old adage that “every vote counts.” That is seriously true in a city where fewer than 10% of registered votes tend to pick the mayor and city council. Not even 40,000 people cast a ballot in the 2019 mayoral election, the most contested race since Mayor Betsy Price was elected in 2011. That’s less than 9% of the roughly 440,000 registered at the time.
As of Monday, 16,594 early votes were cast in the citywide mayoral election, according to the Tarrant County Elections Administration. In 2019, 16,985 people voted during the early voting period, indicating a potential increase in turnout this year.
Early voting ends Tuesday. Election day is Saturday when polls will open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m.
With 10 candidates in the field for mayor and three council districts without an incumbent, more interest has been generated than in years past, said James Riddlesperger, a TCU political science professor who has been tracking Tarrant County politics. Still turnout will likely be low enough that a relatively small group of supporters could turn the tide for a candidate.
“If you can get a block of let’s say 500 voters, then all of a sudden you’re in the game,” he said.
That means a spirited special interest group or some solid campaigning could make or break a campaign.
When it comes to a special interest groups, Mattie Parker’s campaign has racked up endorsements from the Fort Worth Police Officers Association and the Fort Worth Professional Firefighters Association. She’s also been endorsed by a slew prominent citizens.
Some of those endorsements have come with large campaign contributions. The Fort Worth Firefighters Committee for Responsible Government gave Parker $25,000 while the Retired Firefighters Committee for Responsible Government chipped in $5,000, according to the latest campaign finance reports.
Parker is leading the mayoral pack with a little more than $396,400 in cash on hand. She has spent about $670,500 and has nearly $260,000 in unpaid obligations. Council member Brian Byrd had about $96,500 and had spent more than $483,600. Deborah Peoples, the Tarrant County Democratic Party chairperson and a former AT&T vice president, has almost $48,000 and had spent about $182,500. Councilwoman Ann Zadeh had a little under $35,000 on hand and had spent about $133,500.
But campaign spending may not be an indication of who will get votes May 1, Riddlesperger said. A candidate with a solid grassroots push or access to a large network may be able to get that “block of 500 votes” without spending a lot.
“In local politics, the word of mouth, the phone trees and text messages and email and other free forms of communication can be leveraged just as successfully as paid advertising,” he said.
Steve Penate, a real estate broker and political newcomer, has relied heavily on support from Mercy Culture, an evangelical church north of downtown where Penate is a pastor. On a recent Sunday he was on stage at the church with “visit stevepenateformayor.com” displayed behind him.
If Penate or Byrd, a former executive pastor at Christ Fellowship Church, leverage faith communities well, either candidate could earn a spot in the runoff. Similarly, Peoples could attract significant interest from progressives through her Democratic Party ties, though her campaign has largely avoided partisanship, Riddlesperger said.
Historically the establishment candidate has won in Fort Worth, but Riddlesperger said there is an increasing chance an “outside campaign” is victorious.
“We’ve always had kind of the designated candidate and the designated candidate has always won,” he said. “But Fort Worth is changing dramatically and the downtown business community does not have the same sway that it used to have.”
The late Fort Worth council member Clyde Picht offers one of the best examples of how crucial turnout is in Fort Worth. His 10 vote victory in 1997 earned him the nickname “Landslide Clyde.” He died earlier this year.
Low voter turnout has also played a role in statewide elections.
Back in 2012 Ted Cruz faced eight candidates, including the popular and well-financed then-Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison in the U.S. Senate. The legal dispute over redistricting maps pushed the Republican primary to May and then the runoff to July, odd timing that likely affected interest in the race.
With 44% of the vote, Dewhurst couldn’t make it over the 50% plus one to avoid a runoff. Cruz had 34% of the primary vote. When it came time for the runoff, just 6% of Texas voters showed up. At the time more than 13 million were registered, but Cruz bested Dewhurst by getting 151,686 more votes. Cruz then defeated Democrat Paul Sadler in the general election.
This story was originally published April 26, 2021 at 4:32 PM.
