Democrats hope Trump helps them turn Texas more blue in November

Come November, local Democrats are hoping for the perfect storm.

They believe this could be the year, thanks to Donald Trump, that they might begin to regain some of the posts lost through the years to the Republican Party.

If all goes well, some say enough Republicans may stay home — or avoid voting a straight-party ticket because they can’t support the Republican presidential nominee — which could open doors for down-ballot Democrats.

“We have a unique opportunity this cycle to make inroads,” Tarrant County Democratic Party Chairwoman Deborah Peoples said. “Tarrant County is right on the bubble.

“I think Republican leaders have to be worried about what Trump will do to their ticket, making some Republicans stay home or split the ticket,” she said “We are hoping it opens up opportunities for us all across the board.”

Most experts doubt the Democrats will finally achieve their long-awaited rebound this year.

“It would take a blue tsunami to keep any of these Republicans from returning to D.C. and Austin in January,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.

“But just as we still can’t rule out a hurricane hitting the Texas coast between now and the end of September, we also can’t completely rule out a blue tsunami in Texas this fall.”

Republicans, however, are virtually certain that won’t happen.

All that speculation is just “wishful thinking,” said Tim O’Hare, who heads the Tarrant County Republican Party.

“This certainly is a different type of election year, and we are seeing things happen we’ve never seen before,” he said. “But for every person who comes out and says they won’t vote for Trump, someone else will come out and vote for him.”

That’s different, he said, than what was seen when voters stayed home and didn’t vote for GOP presidential candidates Mitt Romney or John McCain and no new voters stepped up in their stead.

“There is no panic among Republicans in Tarrant County,” O’Hare said.

At risk?

If the long-shot blue tsunami does barrel through Tarrant County, political experts say Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton would benefit and several local Republican politicians could be at risk.

At the top of the list could be the 6th Congressional District, long represented by U.S. Rep. Joe Barton, R-Ennis.

This year, he faces challenges by Democrat Ruby Faye Woolridge and Green Party member Darrel Smith Jr.

At least one article has featured the race, saying it could be “a real surprising win for us given the right supporting GOTV effort.” Others disagree, saying there’s little money in the race, other than Barton’s.

“It’s hard to win a House seat on sheer coattails alone, and Trump will probably win the district anyway, and it may not be all that close,” said Kyle Kondick, managing editor for Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “TX-6 is consistently 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential voting.”

Other posts on the list of potentially vulnerable seats, if the blue tsunami comes, are several local Texas House seats held by Republicans in “contested districts that are the least red,” Jones said.

Those include:

District 92: State Rep. Jonathan Stickland, R-Bedford, faces Democrat Kim Leach of Hurst, Green Party candidate Travis Christal and Libertarian Leah Sees in his re-election bid.

District 93: State Rep. Matt Krause, R-Fort Worth, faces Democrat Nancy Bean of Arlington in November.

District 96: State Rep. Bill Zedler, R-Arlington, faces Democrat Sandra D. Lee, a Kennedale Democrat.

District 97: State Rep. Craig Goldman, R-Fort Worth, faces Democrat Elizabeth Tarrant of Fort Worth and Libertarian Patrick Wentworth.

A tsunami would help local Democrats, such as Texas Court of Criminal Appeals Judge Lawrence “Larry” Meyers, a Fort Worth man who is seeking re-election for the first time since leaving the GOP.

“We are going to work real hard for Judge Meyers,” Peoples said. “He was courageous to come to the Democratic Party and say that’s where he belongs. If we can give him a boost in Tarrant County, that helps him statewide.”

Some caution it’s very unlikely the tsunami will blow through Tarrant County — or that these seats will be at risk.

“Republicans, especially in Tarrant County, won’t stay home,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. “The habit of voting is like religion for Republicans in the area, especially given the ire felt towards Hilary Clinton.

“They may not want to vote for Trump, but they definitely want to vote against Clinton.”

Not so fast

U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey this year asks voters to think twice before voting a straight-party ticket.

“I’m urging all good Texans, especially those who maybe lean Republican in Tarrant County, to do the right thing,” said Veasey, D-Fort Worth. “Put aside some of the ugliness and nastiness they hear on talk show radios, do the right thing and don’t support Donald Trump.

“Really study the ticket, up and down the ballot, and make a good decision,” he said. “It would be wrong this year to pull a straight-party ticket.”

Political observers say it’s not likely that Texas Republicans will heed that advice.

“In Texas, in all likelihood, it is business as usual,” said Jim Riddlesperger, a political science professor at TCU. “Trump appears likely to win in Texas, so down-ballot Republicans probably have little to fear.”

O’Hare said he believes Trump’s support will grow, particularly after the debates and more GOP ads runs against Clinton and for Trump.

“The Trump effect will be at worst a push, but more likely it will be a net gain for Republicans,” he said. “Tarrant County is conservative. Texas is conservative. And while [Clinton] may be polling well in some states, she’s not polling well here.”

“I feel very comfortable there will be fewer votes cast for [Clinton] than [were cast] for Barack Obama. And I believe there will be more votes cast for Trump than were for Romney.”

Some say there could be a GOP sweep this year, rather than a blue tsunami, which could put some Democratic officeholders at risk. Among those:

Texas House District 101: In this race, state Rep. Chris Turner, D-Grand Prairie, faces a challenge from Republican Carlos “Charlie” Garza.

Tarrant County Commissioner Precinct 1: Commissioner Roy Charles Brooks faces a challenge from Republican Roy E. Lozano.

Anti-Republican stampede?

No matter what happens in Tarrant County, Republican politicians across the country may well be at risk of losing their seats in November, Rottinghaus said.

“We will see several Republican candidates caught in the stampede against Trump,” he said. “The most likely places are larger urban areas, suburban districts, and races where a female or a Latino is running.

“Trump will bring out Latino voters who are likely to vote against the Republican Party, and Clinton will bring out women voters who will back the Democrats. In some districts, this will be enough of a margin for the Democrats to gain a foothold.”

And if the blue tsunami doesn’t hit locally this year, it may be a few years away.

“The demographics may change so dramatically it may impact all campaigns,” said Allan Saxe, an associate political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington. “It is not so much Trump, but changing demographic patterns that should worry Republicans.

“Republicans have no big worry now, but later perhaps.”

This story was originally published September 3, 2016 at 6:42 PM with the headline "Democrats hope Trump helps them turn Texas more blue in November."