More conservative House bodes well for TX school vouchers. Does Abbott have the votes?
A more conservative House will head to Austin in January for the start of the 2025 Texas Legislative Session.
The political party split is only slightly different than it was when lawmakers last met in 2023. House Republicans picked up two seats previously held by Democrats in the Nov. 5 election.
But the Republicans who were elected are more conservative as a whole and more supportive of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s school choice priority, said Rice Political Science Professor Mark Jones. Abbott has pushed for education savings accounts, a voucher like plan that would let parents use public dollars for their child’s private education.
At a news conference in Tyler on Wednesday, Nov. 6, Abbott said he has 79 House votes for the policy when counting “true, hardcore school choice proponents” — “more than enough” supportive members for it to pass.
There are 150 members of the Texas House. A bill generally needs at least 76 votes to pass.
“All families in Texas deserve school choice, and that’s going to happen because of the the elections that happened last night,” Abbott said, speaking outside Kingdom Life Academy, a private Christian school.
A shift to the right
The general election follows a primary cycle during which several Republican incumbents lost to primary challengers from the right.
Abbott sought to oust fellow Republicans who didn’t support education savings accounts. Additionally, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, targeted a number of Republican incumbents in the primary over their vote to send articles of impeachment to the Senate for trial.
GOP incumbents lost three Fort Worth area seats that went into runoffs. Former Glen Rose Mayor Helen Kerwin defeated Rep. DeWayne Burns in House District 58; software engineer Andy Hooper ousted Rep. Lynn Stucky in House District 64; and stay-at-home dad David Lowe won against Rep. Stephanie Klick in House District 91. All were elected on Tuesday.
“So thankful for Texans across #HD64 who stood up tonight for our state and our country,” Hopper said in a Nov. 5 social media post. “I am looking forward to working hard to represent these patriots in Austin.”
Republicans flipped two seats held by Democrats in South Texas.
A Uvalde-area seat, House District 80, was won by former Uvlade Mayor Don McLaughlin, after Democratic Incumbent Rep. Tracy King didn’t seek reelection. A Corpus Christi-area seat, House District 30, went for Republican Denise Villalobos, after Democratic Incumbent Rep. Abel Herrero didn’t run for another term. Both beat Democratic opponents in the Nov. 5 election.
“I think the House Republican Caucus as a whole has become more conservative,” GOP Caucus chair Tom Oliverson, a Cypress Republican, said in an interview. “I don’t think anybody, casual observer would debate that.”
He noted that House Republicans “out preformed expectations strongly” in South Texas.
“I’ve heard people talk about this today at the national level, that the Democrat Party really needs to rethink their whole strategy in terms of identity politics and some of these social issues,” Oliverson said. “That’s clearly not resonating in South Texas, and they’re losing people hand over the fist.”
He also praised Abbott as a “reliable and consistent ally and defender of Texas House Republican members” in the general election.
Republicans in the Senate, which picked up one new Republican member in its 30 member body, have previously supported versions of education savings accounts.
Beyond the state House, at the top of the ticket Former President Donald Trump won Texas by about 14 points and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz won Texas by about 9 points.
House Democratic Caucus Chair Trey Martinez Fischer, in a written statement said that Democrats have lost seats before and “know how to weather tough nights” like Tuesday. He pointed out that both seats Democrats lost were open.
“Not a single incumbent house democratic lost their race despite being targeted by the Governor,” he said. “This speaks volumes about the resilience and strength of our caucus and of the communities that stand behind us. We’ve built something powerful here, something that will not only endure but grow.”
Martinez Fischer, a San Antonio Democrat, added that “Democrats aren’t quitters” despite the results not going as Democrats hoped.
“Our vision for a fair, just, and compassionate Texas remains as strong as ever, and so does our determination to achieve it,” he said.
Gov. Abbott’s push for ‘school choice’
That rightward shift among Republicans bodes well for Abbott’s school choice plan.
“There is little doubt that school choice legislation will pass in 2025,” Jones said. “The only question is how robust it will be.”
There were multiple iterations of the proposal. The Texas House last took up an Education Savings Accounts proposal in November 2023 during the last of several special sessions. House lawmakers, including five representing Tarrant County, voted 84-63 to remove the voucher-like program from a wide-ranging education bill.
Among other measures related to public school funding, teacher pay, school accountability and special education, the bill included $10,500 in tax dollars each year that students could use for private school tuition or other expenses.
Jones predicted that the 2025 legislation could offer “fewer constraints on who is eligible” and offer fewer “sweeteners” for school districts that lose students than offered in 2023 in an earlier version of the bill.
Proponents say Abbott’s plan will empower parents to have choices for their child’s education, while opponents say the proposal would harm public schools.
“We will continue our fight against spending tax dollars on private school vouchers,” Texas State Teachers Association spokesperson Clay Robison said in an emailed statement. “Our under-funded public schools need more funding. That is where most of our students will continue to be educated.”
Abbott had previously declared that the Legislature has enough votes to pass “school choice” following the primary cycle.
During the Nov. 6 news conference, Abbott said that wealthy families in Texas already have school choice, and the option should be extended to all students.
In addition to his education savings account proposal, Abbott vowed to fully fund Texas public schools, provide teacher pay raises and teacher incentive pay and enhance career and job skill training programs.
“They make it sound like you can’t have both school choice and robust public schools,” Abbott said. “That’s completely false.”
Republicans who oppose vouchers and Democrats have worked together in the past to block versions of the policy. Abbott has never served in the Legislature, so he probably isn’t familiar with the “nuances” of the Capitol, Martinez Fischer said in a Thursday, Nov. 7, interview.
“Everybody knows that there a thousand ways to derail legislation, and there is only one way to pass it,” he said. “And so, given the enormity of the task on an issue that’s so divisive, I’m not sure that Tuesday night gives anybody the ability to take a victory lap.”
The race for Texas House speaker
Also on the docket for state lawmakers is the race for House speaker.
Speaker Dade Phelan, a Beaumont Republican is facing opposition from within his party over his leadership of the chamber, particularly his continuation of the long-held practice of appointing Democrats as committee chairs.
A coalition of about four dozen members have coalesced around Rep. David Cook, a Mansfield Republican whose district falls within Tarrant County. That includes Oliverson who was running for the leadership role but has since endorsed Cook.
Phelan and Cook did not immediately return requests for comment.
Members of the House GOP Caucus meet on Dec. 7 to vote on an endorsed speaker candidate.
Lawmakers return to Austin Jan. 14.
This story was originally published November 6, 2024 at 2:34 PM.
