Donald Trump, Kamala Harris are visiting Texas. Does that mean Senate race is in play?
.JPG "Campaign signs are shown at the Cumberland County Democratic Party Headquarters, above, on Raeford Road in Fayetteville, NC, and the Republican Candidates Resource Center on Owen Drive in Fayetteville, NC. Both sites have planned debate parties for the televised presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024.")
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris’ trips to Texas signal a Texas Senate race that is in play, political science experts say.
The presidential candidates are making stops in the Lone Star State on Friday, Oct. 25 as early voters continue to head to the polls.
The dueling appearances will happen more than 100 miles apart, with Harris holding a Houston campaign rally where she’s expected to be joined by musicians Beyoncé and Willie Nelson. Trump is addressing reporters at a private jet terminal in Austin and reportedly go on comedian Joe Rogan’s podcast, “The Joe Rogan Experience.”
Their visits come with Trump with averaging a 6.7 point lead in the state as of Thursday, according to 538.
Joining them during their Texas stops are U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Houston Republican, and U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, a Dallas Democrat, who are in a tight race for U.S. Senate.
“Both campaigns are looking to rally their base, and they’ve got the best possible people to be with to do that,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor.
Why are Donald Trump, Kamala Harris in Texas?
Trump and Harris’ visits to Texas come in the final stretch of campaign season, with less than two weeks before Election Day on Nov. 5. Early voting started Monday, Oct. 21 and runs through Nov. 1.
Trump will address reporters at Million Air in Austin for a 12:30 p.m. CST news conference focused on border security and migrant crime, according to a news release from his campaign.
The location of Harris’ rally in Houston has not been announced, but the event is scheduled for 3 p.m. to 8 p.m., according to an event page. Harris is expected to talk about abortion access and be joined by women who have been affected by abortion restrictions, according to a senior Harris campaign official.
Joining her are Nelson, DJ Tryfe and businesswoman Tina Knowles, Beyoncé Knowles’ mother. Beyoncé, who is from Houston, is also expected to attend, according to the Washington Post. A source told NBC News that Beyoncé will also perform at the rally. A spokesperson for the Harris-Walz campaign did not immediately confirm her attendance.
While in town, the candidates will both also go on podcasts.
According to a senior campaign official, Harris is interviewing with podcaster Brené Brown, who also works as a research professor at the University of Houston and a visiting professor at the University of Texas at Austin McCombs School of Business.
Cruz will go on Rogan’s podcast, according to a report from Politico and other news outlets. A spokesperson for the Trump-Vance campaign did not immediately return an email seeking comment. This will be Trump’s first time on Rogan’s podcast, Politico reports.
Rogan’s podcast could help Trump appeal to young men who are independents or conservative, while Harris’ interview with Brown could help her reach progressive women, including older women who are attuned to issues like reproductive freedom and healthcare, Rottinghaus said.
Their late-cycle visits indicate that Texas is officially a swing state, though probably not on the presidential ticket, said Rottinghaus. That doesn’t necessarily mean Democrats will win or seats will flip, but it does mean that Texas is now a competitive environment that national Democrats can invest in, Rottinghaus said.
Polls suggest that the presidential ticket isn’t in play in Texas, but there are a few factors that likely contributed to Trump and Harris’ decisions to stop in state, said Jim Riddlesperger, a TCU political science professor.
For one, there is a “big reservoir of money in Texas,” he said. The visit could also garner publicity for the candidates, particularly Harris as she campaigns with celebrities, he said. Trump and Harris may also be hoping to affect the outcome of the Senate Race in Texas, as Democrats try to hold onto control of the legislative chamber.
“They’re not here in Texas because they’re really seeking Texas votes,” Riddlesperger said. “I mean, they both know how the presidential election is going to come out. Now, the Senate candidates are a different story altogether, and that might be a secondary reason why the presidential candidates are here.”
Ted Cruz, Colin Allred will join Trump, Harris during visits
Campaign spokespersons for the senate candidates confirmed that Cruz will join Trump in Austin, and Allred will join Harris in Houston.
The candidates are in a close race that has gotten national attention as Democrats try to keep control of the U.S. Senate. Recent polling has had Cruz up by 3.4 points on average as of Thursday, Oct. 24, according to 538.
Texas’ competitiveness is strongly tied to base turnout, Rottinghaus said.
“Trump and Harris are both the top of the ticket representatives,” he said. “They’re both the highest level party officials that could possibly come to support their nominees for Senate, and it’s what really triggers base voters.”
A spokesperson for Cruz declined to comment beyond confirming Cruz’s appearance with Trump. The two have a complicated history as once political foes turned allies.
Cruz and Allred have made bipartisan appeals to voters as they try to win Texas, something no Democrat has done statewide since 1994. As Allred paints Cruz as being focused more on himself than his constituents and casts himself as the moderate choice, Cruz has worked to link Allred to the Biden-Harris administration and label him as radical.
While Allred is supporting Harris, including on the Democratic National Convention stage, he’s somewhat kept a distance from Harris in the past as he tries to win a Republican-led Texas. Rottinghaus points to Allred’s “relative silence” when Harris took over as the Democratic nominee, that he says has since turned into a full embrace of the Harris campaign and national Democrats.
On the campaign trail, everything is calculated and every decision comes with trade offs, Riddlesperger said.
“Everything is an attempt to maximize your chances of winning an election,” Riddlesperger said. “And even though Texas isn’t in play in a presidential election, it is in the Senate election and both candidates have good reasons for trying to raise the profiles of their campaigns. In Ted Cruz’s case, it’s to ride on Trump’s coattails, and in Colin Allred’s case, to just become a better known candidate.”
The expected topics of the presidential candidate visits — immigration and abortion access — also tie back to Texas, a state making up much of the U.S.-Mexico border and a state with some of the strictest abortion laws in the nation.
After the economy, immigration is the top issue for likely Texas voters, according to an October poll from The Texas Politics Project at The University of Texas at Austin. For Republicans, it’s the most important issue, the polls show. Abortion and women’s rights are tied with democracy for the fourth most important issue with likely voters in Texas, according to the poll. It’s the second most important issue for Democrats.
Allred tied the state’s abortion ban to Cruz in a statement on Harris’ Friday event. The statement did not mention Harris.
”Texas women deserve to have their voices heard,” Allred said. “I am glad these brave Texas women will have a platform to tell their stories. And, after I’m elected on November 5th, I’ll be a Senator who will restore their rights and put Texas first.”
This story was originally published October 24, 2024 at 5:24 PM.
