Texas Senate race could come down to Dallas-Fort Worth. Here’s what voters are saying
Much like the voters across state, North Texans are divided on who should represent them in the U.S. Senate.
There’s Ted Cruz, the rabble-rousing Republican incumbent who — love or hate him — has name-power galore and a Senate record that aligns with many conservatives. Or voters could go with Democrat Colin Allred, a former professional football player turned civil rights lawyer turned U.S. House representative who’s more subdued on the election trail.
Both have made recent stops to the Dallas-Fort Worth area to try and win over North Texas voters. Both say they’re the right pick for Texas. So who to pick come Nov. 5?
That’s the question before North Texas voters.
Many voters will base their decision based on feel — their sense of who the candidates are based on what they’ve seen in commercials, said SMU political science professor Cal Jillson.
“Cruz presents himself as a conservative fighter, and Allred presents himself as a more middle of the road candidate, willing to work with both sides,” he said.
If voters dive into the issues, they’ll see Cruz stressing immigration, border security and crime. They’ll find Allred focused on voting rights and women’s access to health care, including abortions.
Some voters interviewed by the Star-Telegram have already made up their minds.
“He’s been in Washington,” Mark Devol, who lives in Collin County, said of Cruz. “He gets it.”
Gary Kutac, who lives in east Dallas — clad in a “Humans Against Ted Cruz” shirt — would disagree.
“We really need a senator that’s worth something,” he said.
For those who haven’t decided, there’s still time, and you can bet Cruz and Allred are trying to win them over.
‘Lines are a little bit blurred’
LSA Burger Co. in The Colony was packed Aug. 23 with Cruz supporters eager to hear from the senator at an campaign rally. Some held signs reading “Keep Texas, Texas” or wore gear supporting Donald Trump — Ted Cruz foe turned ally.
One man in the crowd held Cruz’s book, “Justice Corrupted: How the Left Weaponized Our Legal System,” tucked under his left arm for the senator to sign after his speech.
Devol was among those in attendance, joined by his wife, Jennifer.
“We’ve had such an influx of people into this state, and it’s really changed the political landscape in a lot of ways,” he said. “You could almost always guarantee Cruz was going to win or a Republican was going to win. Now those lines are a little bit blurred.”
Dallas-Fort Worth added 644,000 people between 2018 and 2023, according to census data. Texas has 2.15 million more registered voters than it did in the 2018 general election.
And the region’s political leanings change with the geography.
Take the 2018 Senate race, when Cruz faced former El Paso U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke. In 2018, Dallas was firmly blue. Tarrant — considered by many to be the last red, urban county in Texas — went for O’Rourke, but barely. Move farther out into the suburbs and more rural counties, and the communities are traditionally more solidly Republican-leaning than the state’s urban centers.
Ultimately, Cruz won the state by about 2 percentage points, against a rival who’s campaign style was more flashy and has appeared more spontaneous than Allred’s. O’Rourke gained exposure for traveling to each of Texas’ 254 counties while stumping. Allred has focused on airing ads in Texas biggest media markets, still traveling around the state but on a smaller scale.
“This is about our future and not about the past races,” Allred said when asked about closing the gap from 2018 and getting his name out to voters ahead of November. “We’re running a very different campaign. And this is about, I think, restoring freedoms to Texans.”
Allred’s strategy should be to focus on urban areas, particularly in North Texas where he’s best known, given his time representing Dallas in Congress, Jillson said. Cruz is going to “run up some big majorities” in small towns and rural parts of the state, he said.
While Republicans think turning out their base is enough to win, Democrats think they’ll need help from moderate voters and Republicans who are tired of Trump and Cruz, Jillson said. Given the country, state and region’s polarized electorate, there aren’t many people in the middle to compete for, he said.
Some Republicans have been turned off by the GOP. Ann Mason, who lives in Fort Worth, said she’s long been a Republican voter, but this time around she’s supporting Allred.
“I think he’s a young enough politician that he hasn’t been brainwashed with the power of many politicians or the political parties,” Mason said. “I think he’s pretty authentic in wanting to serve his constituents.”
Cruz wins by focusing on jobs, family, God and freedoms, like the freedom of speech, Devol said.
“I think at the end of the day, Senator Cruz has to just continue to hammer home and align with the conservatives that are here in this state and in this country,” Devol said. “Because we’ve seen too many Republicans call themselves Republicans, but they don’t align to what most Republicans would see as core values.”
For Allred, the key is to energize voters, said Tom Forsyth, who lives in south Dallas.
“There is a majority of Texans that are out there who support what the Democrats believe in,” Forsyth said. “It’s just a matter of getting them to turn out to vote.”
North Texans weigh in
Forsyth stood on the edge of a crowd at an Allred event in Dallas, talking with Kutac, the east Dallas man who wore a “Humans Against Ted Cruz” shirt. The campaign stop was focused on abortion access and rallying women behind Allred.
Some attendees clustered at a stage at South Side ballroom, as others sat in chairs along the edges, waiting to hear from Allred and doctors and women negatively affected by Texas’ strict abortion law. At times, chants of “Beat Ted Cruz” filled the room.
“We’ve got to get younger people, we’ve got to get Hispanics, we’ve got to get women registered to vote and to turn out,” Forsyth said.
Christal Alexander, who also lives in Dallas, agrees. For Allred to win, it will take an outpouring of votes from women and people of color, Alexander said. So many people think their vote doesn’t matter, but in this particular election, it will, she said.
Alexander said she’s long been involved in politics and recalls holding picket signs for former Texas Gov. Ann Richards as a child. Forsyth and Kutac block are knocking on doors to get people registered to vote, Forsyth said.
But the majority of Texans aren’t involved in politics. Several approached by the Star-Telegram about the race said they didn’t know enough about the U.S. Senate race to weigh in.
The race hasn’t really been on the radar of David Spaulding, who lives in Grand Prairie. He’s familiar with Allred and Cruz’s party affiliations but doesn’t know much about them on a personal level.
“I mean, I know my vote counts,” Spaulding said. But at the same time, Texas has long been red and Cruz will likely win, he said.
Emily Kunkel, who lives in Azle, was at the Allred event trying to learn more about the U.S. representative from Dallas trying to win over North Texans.
But who will she vote for?
“I pretty much decided not to vote for Ted Cruz,” she said.
Spaulding shares her sentiment. His vote for Allred is more of a vote against Ted Cruz, he said.
Graham Zelber of Everman has reached the opposite conclusion. Sitting in the food court at The Parks Mall in Arlington, Zelber explained that he’d be voting for Cruz.
“We live here, so we see what’s happening, and I think he’ll have no problem getting it done,” Zelber said of Cruz’s chances for winning in November.
Bruce Payne of Fort Worth fears that might be the case.
Payne, fond of saying his first vote was for Democrat George McGovern against Richard Nixon in the 1972 presidential election, is apprehensive about the Senate race.
“I think Cruz is so entrenched that he’s not going to be leaving, and I don’t think he’s a good choice,” Payne said, making note of Cruz’s trip to Cancún during the 2021 winter storm that left millions without power.
“That’s typical Ted Cruz,” Payne said. “I feel like he’s spineless, a coward.”
On the other hand, he sees Allred as a man of honor and integrity.
It’s a starkly different opinion than that of Maria Garcia, who lives in Plano and serves as the president of the Hispanic Republican Club of North Texas. She was among those at the Cruz event in The Colony.
“I’m supporting him because he’s a good conservative,” Garcia said. “He has always fought for the conservative values, and I’m a conservative.”
Cruz will win, she said.
“He’s been smart,” she said. “He’s reaching out to the Hispanic community, and the Hispanic community right now, the ones that I’ve spoken with — they’re not monolithic so it’s hard to tell — but the ones that I know of, they’re conservative. They support him because of what’s going on. They care about their pocketbook, so I feel like he’s going to do well.”
Cruz has made immigration and border security central to his campaign, while Allred has spent a lot of time focusing on women’s health. Both aligned with top issues raised by their supporters in interviews with the Star-Telegram.
For Zelber, the Everman man who was at the Arlington mall, immigration is something he thinks Cruz has handled well.
“We’ve had a lot of illegal immigrants come over, and my wife is Hispanic, so she supports me too,” he said. “Mexico is … close to a third world country and we don’t want that to happen in our country here. So he’s been doing a great job with making people get legal before they come over to the border.”
Jennifer Devol also included preserving the ability to pick if you want a vaccine and keeping “men out of women’s sports.”
Cruz stands for all of those things, she said. He believes Americans should have freedom, including protecting their freedom of speech and right to bear arms, Devol said.
In addition to immigration, the economy is a top issue for Esteban Ramirez, a Cruz supporter who lives in Northlake, who’d like to see interest rates go down.
For Payne, who’s supporting Allred, a key priority is abortion access.
“Despite the fact that I’m a man, I do believe that the abortion issue and the right to a woman’s autonomy of her own body is fundamental to women having true freedom,” Payne said.
For Kutac, voting rights also makes the list. Forsyth would like to see a program that helps the middle class to ensure people have a living wage.
Cruz, Allred look to Tarrant County
Both candidates have made campaign stops in the Dallas-Fort Worth area in recent weeks, including Cruz’s launch of a campaign office for the region.
Voters can expect to see the candidates more in the final stretch as they visit the state’s most populous areas to chase votes, said Jim Riddlesperger, a TCU political science professor.
That likely includes Tarrant County.
Cruz is confident he can win, despite Democrats’ strides in recent years.
“No doubt Tarrant County has been a battleground,” Cruz said in a Aug. 17 interview with the Star-Telegram. “But in 2024, Tarrant County is going to vote bright Red.”
Tarrant County is incredibly important to him personally and to his campaign, Allred said in a Aug. 28 interview with the Star-Telegram.
“Obviously as someone who was born and raised here in North Texas and has represented us in Congress the last six years, not only politically, but also, I hope to have the chance to serve my fellow North Texans,” he said.
Throughout the campaign, Allred has pitched himself as a bipartisan legislator who can bring people together around shared values. Cruz has said Allred is extreme and has linked the congressman to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on issues like the economy, border security, foreign affairs and support for law enforcement.
“In Tarrant there is basic common sense that prevails,” Cruz said.
Polling shows Cruz in the lead in the state. One recent poll had Cruz up by 2 percentage points. In another he lead by 8.
Allred could see a boost from having Harris on the ballot. The August Texas Politics Project poll found Democrats are more enthusiastic about the 2024 election than they were a few months ago, when Biden was still on the ballot.
Allred has seen excitement change since Harris’ entrance into the race — a positive that will result in an election that’s more reflective of the state as a whole, he said.
But Allred is also being careful not to “lock arms with Harris” to avoid alienating swing voters that have doubts about the vice president.
“We’ve been in a very close race this entire time, and to me this has been always about Texas first,” Allred said.
Staff Writer Cody Copeland contributed to this report.
This story was originally published September 9, 2024 at 4:57 PM.
