Young voters: ‘I wouldn’t bet my campaign’ on them, one political expert says

When subject turns to young people voting, political experts caution not to bet on them showing up to the polls.

For decades, older voters — mainly those 65 and older — have largely determined the state’s political path, because this group of voters is the biggest and the one that traditionally can be depended on to head to the polls.

That could change this year, because the 18-29 age group has more registered voters than any other age group in Texas, a Star-Telegram analysis of state voter data shows.

“Midterms are more about who stays home than who turns out,” said Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha, who heads the political science department at the University of North Texas in Denton. “I remain skeptical and given the trends, if I were a candidate for elected office, I wouldn’t bet my campaign on young voters.

“They are just not reliable voters.”

There are 15.6 million registered voters in Texas, 3.1 million of them are between 18 and 29. That’s about 4,000 more than those who are 65 and older.

Despite their larger numbers, just a fraction of young voters actually cast ballots in the last two mid-term elections, the Star-Telegram analysis of voter data provided by the Texas Secretary of State’s Office shows.

In 2014, just 323,094 voted in the general election, compared with 1.4 million voters who were 65 and older. In 2010, only 202,929 young voters cast ballots, compared with 768,415 voters who were 65 and older. And earlier this year, only around 60,000 young voters cast ballots in the primary election, compared with the 723,252 ballots cast by Texans who are 65 and older.

“National turnout among young voters is low in presidential elections and even lower in the midterms,” said Eshbaugh-Soha. “Texas voter turnout is among the lowest in the nation, regardless of whether it is presidential or midterm.”

Generally, presidential elections tend to draw the most enthusiasm from younger voters.

But some people argue young people are juggling school, sports and teen interests amid a new wave of civic interest.

Barbara Milhizer, an English teacher and deputy voter registrar at Carroll Senior High School, said many students were moved to become involved by the high school shooting in Parkland, Florida. She said she sees a “sustained fervor or sustained interest in wanting to effect policy.”

“School shootings are extraordinarily personal for them,” Milhizer said. “This is about things that are starting to impact them in their daily life and they want to have a say about it.”

In Fort Worth, Benjamin Alvarez, 18, a senior at the Young Men’s Leadership Academy, said he won’t miss voting this election.

“It’s my first time,” Alvarez said. “I’m ready to vote. I want to practice my right as an American citizen.”

For a more in-depth look at the Texas youth vote in the 2018 elections, click here.

This story was originally published October 4, 2018 at 4:33 PM.