Trump support not enough in Texas congressional race. Has former president lost his sway?
State Rep. Jake Ellzey’s Tuesday night victory in Texas’ 6th Congressional District shows that an endorsement from former President Donald Trump can only take a candidate so far, political science experts say.
Ellzey won a special runoff for the North Texas seat previously held by Ron Wright, who died in February after battles with COVID-19 and cancer. Ellzey and Wright’s widow Susan Wright were in an all-Republican runoff. The district spans most of Arlington and Mansfield in Tarrant County, and all of Ellis and Navarro counties.
On Tuesday, with all polling places reporting, unofficial results showed Ellzey received 53.3% of the votes to Wright’s 46.7%. Election results aren’t final until canvassed.
“I’m honored that you would entrust me with your vote and your desire to send me to Washington, D.C., to represent the good people of this district,” Ellzey said at an election watch party in Ennis.
Wright would soon concede in the race.
“Special elections are special, and this one was no exception,” Wright said in a statement. “I want to congratulate Congressman-elect Jake Ellzey on his victory. I am praying for his success and wish him well. … I will never forget the kindness the people of Congressional District 6 have shown Ron and I for so many years.”
Ellzey’s victory came despite Trump’s support of Wright.
Almost any Republican would want Trump’s endorsement and work hard to get it, said Southern Methodist University Political Science Professor Cal Jillson.
“But what they also need to know is that that’s not going to win an election,” Jillson said.
Two Republicans vie for the congressional seat
Ellzey and Wright were the top two vote-getters in a May 1 special election. Wright ended the first round with the largest share of votes, and Ellzey edged a Democrat, guaranteeing the seat would stay under Republican leadership.
The two candidates don’t vary much when it comes to ideology, but in the special election and ahead of Tuesday’s runoff, Ellzey was the target of negative ads from conservative group The Club for Growth, which labeled Ellzey as a “Puppet for Democrats in DC” and dinged him as supporting a tax increase and missing legislative votes. The group also noted Wright’s Trump endorsement.
Ellzey at times defended himself against the Club for Growth, including through the support of prominent Republicans U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw of Houston and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who served as energy secretary in Trump’s administration.
Axios reported Wednesday that Trump was encouraged by Club for Growth President David McIntosh to support Wright, and that Trump’s advisers aren’t happy with McIntosh. In an interview with Axios Trump disputed that the election’s outcome dented his power and contended that he’d won since Wright beat Ellzey in May and Democrats were blocked out of the runoff.
Asked on election night about the group and Trump’s involvement in the race, Ellzey said he’d leave the analysis up to political science experts.
“But the number of people who have voted for me and invested in me and my campaign like the positive message,” he said. “They like the idea of a brighter future for our kids and a return to the Reagan Republican-type politics that I believe in, which is a brighter tomorrow and just being nice to each other.”
On the “Mark Davis Show” on KSKY-AM Wednesday morning, Ellzey dismissed the idea that his winning indicated Trump isn’t popular in the district.
“The president is still exceptionally popular in this district,” Ellzey said.
Trump endorsement “helps” but doesn’t guarantee win
Rice University political science professor Mark Jones said a Trump endorsement “doesn’t appear to be all that it’s cracked up to be anymore.”
In the May election, Wright saw an Election Day bump in votes that suggested the former president’s endorsement was beneficial. But this time around, that boost wasn’t seen, despite Trump holding a town hall by phone for Wright on the eve of the election, Jillson said. On the phone call, Trump reiterated his “complete and total endorsement” of Wright.
“She was married to a great gentleman who I knew, Ron Wright, and he was an outstanding member of Congress,” Trump said. “Susan will carry on his legacy and stand up to the radical left and fight for our America first agenda.”
Jillson believes Wright had the early advantage in the race with the sympathy over her husband’s death and a wave of endorsements from Republicans.
“But she did not develop that early advantage through the race, and Ellzey seemed to build a steadier, more systematic campaign, and he came back on her and prevailed fairly easily over the course of the evening,” Jillson said.
Ellzey won 57% of the votes in Ellis County and 53% of the votes in Tarrant County, but lost in Navarro County where Wight received 56% of the votes.
If Trump wants to do more to influence races across the country, he’ll have to do more to raise money and visit districts and campaign, Jillson said.
Jones said the lesson from the race is that a Trump endorsement doesn’t guarantee a victory in an all Republican contest.
“It helps,” he said. “But just because a candidate received the Trump endorsement doesn’t mean they can close the victory. And just because ... a candidate’s opponent received Trump’s endorsement doesn’t mean they need to throw in the towel. Jake Ellzey demonstrated that last night.”
Both Jillson and Jones doubted that Democrats played a major role in Tuesday’s election — though Jones suggested they could have been the group that tipped the scale in favor of Ellzey.
Ellzey’s campaign sent Election Day texts noting that Ellzey, a former Navy fighter pilot, is a veteran and pro-public education, while Wright was endorsed by Trump.
“It is quite possible that a small number of Democrats, who given the choice between the conservative Republican not endorsed by Donald Trump and a conservative Republican endorsed by Donald Trump decided to make the effort to turn out to vote for no other reason than to vote against Donald Trump,” Jones said.
What’s next for Jake Ellzey?
On Election Night, Ellzey said his first priority iis to get his district offices set up and staffed so constituent services can get up and running. Ellzey is expected to be sworn in on Friday.
But as he prepares to take office, Ellzey is also in the middle of his first term representing the Waxahachie area in the state House. A special election will have to be called to fill that seat.
The House district includes all of Ellis County and part of Henderson County.
Ellzey told Davis he doesn’t know who’s going to run, but that folks likely have some suspicions.
“I think what you’ll see is, especially after this race ... is a desire for civility, positivity, a positive outlook for the state of Texas for that race,” Ellzey said.
