President Trump leads Biden in Texas, but not by much, a poll of likely voters shows
President Trump leads Democratic opponent Joe Biden in Texas, but not by much, according to a poll released Wednesday.
The Quinnipiac University poll showed Trump ahead with 50% of likely voters, and Biden with 45%. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
That poll, which was published Thursday, comes hours after a New York Times/Siena College poll shows that Trump faces serious challenges in three red states he won in 2016: Texas, Iowa and Georgia. That poll indicated that Trump was strongly opposed by women in those states.
The Quinnipiac poll also showed 50% of Texans favoring Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn over opponent MJ Hegar, who had 42%.
“It is close but leaning toward Trump in Texas. There are still a slim number of likely voters who are undecided or on the fence about their choice, which could leave just enough wiggle room for either candidate to take Texas’ many electoral votes,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a news release.
The poll included cell phone and landline interviews with 1,078 Texas residents who self-identified as likely voters. The interviews were conducted Sept. 17-21.
The poll focused on Texas and Ohio, states in which Trump won easily in 2016. In Ohio, Biden was preferred by 48% of voters compared to 47% who favored Trump.
Although Quinnipiac has published multiple polls, this is the first survey of likely voters in those two states, officials said.
“With six weeks to go until Election Day and most minds made up, Ohio could hinge on a sliver of likely voters who signal they may have a change of heart and the four percent who say they are unsure right now who they’ll back. At this point, it’s a toss-up,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Mary Snow said in the release.
In Ohio, 97% of those surveyed said their mind was made up, compared to 94% of Texas residents who participated.
The poll also showed that 47% of likely voters in Texas plan on visiting an early voting location, while 38% plan to vote on Nov. 3 and 13% plan to vote by mailed-in absentee ballots.
Among Texas voters, 49% of poll respondents had a favorable opinion of Trump while 47% had an unfavorable opinion of him. Only 41% had a favorable opinion of Biden, and 52% had a negative opinion of him.
Trump is ahead of Biden in three of five categories among likely voters, within the margin of error, when asked who would do a better job on certain issues:
▪ Handling the economy: Trump 58%, Biden 39%;
▪ Handling the military: Trump 52%, Biden 45%;
▪ Keeping your family safe: Trump 52%, Biden 44%;
▪ Handling the coronavirus response: Trump 49%, Biden 47%;
▪ Handling racial inequality: Biden 50%, Trump 45%.
In Texas’ race for the U.S. Senate, a seat Cornyn has held since 2002, 84% of voters said their minds were made up but 15% said they might change their minds.
Also, the poll indicates that Hegar might still face challenges with name recognition, or with getting her messages across to voters. Of those polled, 29% had a favorable opinion of her, 19% had an unfavorable opinion and 50% said they hadn’t heard enough about her.
Biden favored by women
The New York Times/Siena College poll included interviews with likely voters Sept. 16-22. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.
In Texas, Iowa and Georgia, Trump continued to enjoy support among men, but not women.
The president was favored by 8 percentage points among Iowa men, but he was behind by 14 points among women.
Biden also enjoyed a 10-point advantage among women in Georgia, and 16 points among women in Texas.
This story was originally published September 24, 2020 at 2:13 PM.
