State agency is investigating Texas’ spike in COVID positivity rate, Abbott says
Gov. Greg Abbott said Thursday that the state is investigating Texas’ positivity rate that has skyrocketed in recent weeks.
While hospitalizations and daily new cases of the novel coronavirus have declined from record highs, the state’s positivity rate — the number of positive cases out of the total tested — has exceeded 20% in recent days.
After Texas’ seven-day average positivity rate reached 24.5% Tuesday, it dramatically dropped to 16.08% Wednesday, according to Texas Department of State Health Services data.
For contact tracing to be effective, experts say the rate should be under 5%.
The Texas Department of State Health Services, “brought in a data team to dig into it to find out exactly what the reason is for the increase in the positivity,” Abbott said during a press conference in Lubbock Thursday afternoon.
As the state’s positivity rate has risen, COVID-19 testing has plummeted. The state reported an average of 28,304 new viral tests a day for the week ending on Aug. 11, down from an average of 62,801 for the week ending July 18.
But that changed when the state reported 124,403 new viral tests Wednesday — a dramatic increase from the 17,497 new tests reported Tuesday.
Public health experts have said that a decrease in testing coupled with such a high positivity rate indicates that the state is not testing everyone it should and is likely significantly undercounting the number of cases.
Lara Anton, a spokeswoman for DSHS, confirmed Thursday evening that DSHS is working with data experts to streamline its processes, upgrade its lab reporting system and implement quality control measures.
“This team is currently investigating why inconsistencies in the positivity rate have been evident this week while the number of COVID-19 patients in the hospital decreased,” Anton wrote in an email Thursday.
Anton pointed to a few factors that have currently impacted the positivity rate, including an Aug. 1 upgrade that enabled the DSHS’ lab reporting system to process a higher volume of test results. This allowed DSHS to clear test results that had been previously counted and reported to the patient, but not uploaded to the system, Anton said.
Additionally, both a hospital lab and a commercial lab resolved coding errors that were preventing tests from being uploaded to DSHS’ reporting system.
“Based on what we’re seeing, we expect that the positivity rate will be generally be higher until testing demand increases and the backlog of cases smooth out,” Anton wrote.
Abbott pointed to fewer surge testing sites targeting hotspots as one reason for the decline from July’s increased levels. The state is working on establishing “easy pathways” to increase testing Abbott said, like four testing sites in Harris County that will be able to test up to 5,000 per day altogether, as well as increased testing in schools and nursing homes.
“So you can expect to see those test numbers go up here in the coming days,” Abbott said.
While Tarrant County’s publicly-supported tests are still seeing high demand, other metro areas, like Austin, have reported a decline in the demand for tests, and relaxed their criteria for who is eligible.
Anton also pointed to a decrease in demand at community testing sites across the state as a factor influencing the positivity rate, noting, “there is plenty of capacity at these sites and no lines at this point.”
Abbott encouraged Texans to take advantage of testing opportunities, and stressed that despite “COVID fatigue,” they must continue to follow best practices and health and safety guidelines.
He reiterated his concerns that people may start to gather more as students return to classrooms, that the upcoming flu season may strain hospital capacity and that people will be less vigilant during the upcoming Labor Day weekend.
“If people do not continue to — in a very disciplined way — maintain the highest level of standards, what you will see is an acceleration of the expansion of COVID-19,” Abbott said.
When asked about when bars may be able to reopen their doors after being shut down in late June, Abbott said decisions on reopenings are based on data, and “not done arbitrarily and just picking a date out of a hat.”
For him to consider reopening bars, Abbott said the positivity rate must remain below 10% for a sustained period of time, hospital capacity would need to increase and bars must have strategies to ensure patrons follow safety guidelines.
This story was originally published August 13, 2020 at 5:27 PM.
