More delays in the Census could affect redistricting and response rates in Texas
The U.S. Census Bureau’s request to delay the once-a-decade count that has already been disrupted by the novel coronavirus’ spread may postpone Texas’ redistricting process.
The Census Bureau announced Monday that it is seeking an additional 120 days to finalize its count of the nation’s population, pushing the date data is delivered to states to no later than July 31, 2021 — well after the Texas legislature’s regular session is scheduled to end in May, possibly requiring a special session.
For the next decade, the census will help determine how billions in federal funds are distributed and be the basis for redrawing congressional and state districts. Because of the state’s growth, Texas stands to gain up to three more seats in Congress, and in Fort Worth, the census will also help shape the creation of two new city council districts.
Rep. Phil King, a Republican from Weatherford and chair of the House Redistricting Committee, said he wants to see the Census Bureau reevaluate its decision.
“I would much prefer that the Census Bureau be told to, ‘Look, go exhaust all other avenues such as social media, robocalls, direct phone calls, whatever it is — exhaust every other means you’ve got — before you come in and do something that’s going to change this process for the entire country and certainly create a lot of confusion and probably a lot of litigation,” King said.
Redistricting in Texas
Texas House and Senate committee hearings to garner public feedback on the state’s redistricting have been canceled due to the virus’ spread. And under normal circumstances, Texas lawmakers already have a tight turnaround to finalize new maps.
Typically, census data is delivered to Texas between mid-February and early March — with March 31 the latest date data must be sent. That puts Texas lawmakers on a time crunch with March 12, 2021, the last day for bills to be filed before the session ends in May.
However, if the Census Bureau’s request is approved by Congress, the delay may require Gov. Greg Abbott to call a special session for lawmakers to return to Austin and redraw maps once the data is in.
The Texas Constitution stipulates that the legislature shall redraw House and Senate districts “at its first regular session after the publication of each United States decennial census.” And if the legislature fails to, the task falls to the Legislative Redistricting Board of Texas, which is made up of the lieutenant governor, the speaker of the House, the attorney general, the comptroller of public accounts and the commissioner of the general land office.
Joaquin Gonzalez, a voting rights attorney with the Texas Civil Rights Project, said in order to comply with federal law, the legislature would likely “have to convene in special session or face a lawsuit over that.”
In each of the last two decades, state lawmakers have tackled redistricting in special sessions, and Rep. Chris Turner, a Democrat from Grand Prairie and vice-chair of the House Redistricting Committee, said if need be, the legislature can adapt.
“Ultimately if that was the situation that we found ourselves in, I’m confident that legislators would step up and confront the challenge and hopefully get the people’s business done,” Turner said.
King has served in the legislature since 1999, and he said while doable, redrawing maps in a 30-day special session is “very, very difficult.”
“When you crunch that down to 30 days, it makes it much, much more difficult for the public and the interest groups to participate at the level they want to and that we would want them to,” King said. “I want the public to be very satisfied with the process when it’s over. And that’s why we need that full regular session to help accomplish that.”
And with a Dec. 13, 2021, filing deadline looming for the 2022 primary elections, lawmakers would have to ensure plans are finalized before then — or risk delaying the primary elections.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said in some ways Texas is used to a delay in finalizing its maps. Next year’s redistricting process will be the first time in decades that the state’s maps won’t have to receive federal clearance to ensure they don’t discriminate against voters of color.
A summer special session devoted solely to redistricting may allow for a more detailed, open and transparent discussion, Jones said, “instead of being convoluted with all of the other business of the legislature during a regular session.”
And because of the Texas Constitution’s wording, the legislature would likely have the chance to redraw districts once again in next the regular legislative session in 2023, Gonzalez said.
But as of right now, those scenarios are all dependent on the U.S. Census Bureau’s timeline being approved by Congress. Sen. Joan Huffman, a Republican from Houston and chair of the Senate Select Committee on Redistricting, said in a statement Wednesday the committee will continue to monitor new developments.
“Although the redistricting timeline may be delayed, it is still my intent to provide all Texans with an equal opportunity to participate in the redistricting process by collecting and soliciting input from any and all interested parties,” Huffman said.
An accurate count
Demographers and organizers say it will be critical to use any extra time to ensure an accurate count.
Home to thousands of people in historically hard-to-count populations, Texas was already behind other states going into the 2020 Census, as lawmakers failed to budget money toward census efforts while other states devoted hundreds of millions of dollars.
A delay in field operations may help ensure those harder-to-count populations, like people living along the Texas-Mexico border, Latinos and African-Americans can be reached directly once its safe for Census Bureau workers to do so, said Genesis Sanchez, the regional census campaign manager in Texas for the NALEO Educational Fund, a nonprofit that aims to facilitate Latino participation in the political process.
But she’s also keeping an eye out to ensure that the quality of operations continues as planned — even as dates may change.
“One key thing is that the farther away you move away from April 1, that reference date, the less accurate the data is,” Sanchez said.
The Census Bureau has mulled the possibility of turning to administrative records in order to count households that can’t be reached due to the pandemic.
Lila Valencia, a senior demographer with the Texas Demographic Center, cautioned that relying on existing government records to make estimates could have serious implications for Texas, and that using self-response data directly from households is the most accurate method.
“We do know that that has implications for the way that those population figures come out, especially for historically underrepresented and disenfranchised populations in the Texas population,” Valencia said of using administrative records.
So far, Texas lags behind most of the country in its response rates. As of Wednesday, 49.4% of the nation’s households had responded to the census, while Texas ranked 40th with a 45.1% response rate.
In Fort Worth, the city’s overall response rate was 48.2% — with sections of downtown and east Fort Worth with lower response rates than much of the north and southwest areas of the city.
“These are unprecedented times and we obviously have not been able to do the outreach that we originally planned. Events and meetings where we hoped to share information have been canceled or postponed,” Michelle Gutt, a spokeswoman for the city, wrote in an email Tuesday. “Right now the most important thing is that we keep people safe and healthy. But, we also realize how important it is for us to get a complete and accurate count.”
The city is assessing which neighborhoods have lower response rates and will be implementing targeted social media campaigns, Gutt said. City officials have continued to share information about the census, and an insert is in the current water bill, which is also being shared with organizations delivering meals with the hopes they can help reach residents, Gutt said.
If the results of the census are delayed, Gutt said receiving them in the fall of 2021 likely would not impact the creation of the two new city council districts. Although, if the process extends past December 2021, it may impact the printing of voter registration cards that display voters’ correct council district.
With it unclear when it may be safe for Census Bureau workers to return to knocking on people’s doors, Turner said it underscores the importance for Texans to respond to the census now if they can.
“The bottom line is, we need to have an accurate count in the census,” Turner said. “And we need to use that accurate count to draw fair maps that fairly reflect the population changes in the state of Texas.”
This story was originally published April 16, 2020 at 4:25 PM.
