Is a shelter-in-place order next? It’s up to Texans to limit the spread of coronavirus
California ordered all its residents to stay home Thursday, and the governors of New York, Connecticut, and Illinois followed shortly after Friday with similar directives.
But as more governors enact tighter restrictions to curb the novel coronavirus’ spread, Gov. Greg Abbott was adamant that his sweeping executive order Thursday that limits social gatherings to 10 people, closes Texas schools, bans dining-in at restaurants and more, was not a shelter-in-place order.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo also rejected the “shelter-in place” label for his heightened restrictions that require workers of nonessential businesses to stay home, according to The New York Times.
Texas’ order does not shutter most businesses — except for gyms and massage parlors — and domestic travel is still unrestricted. Texans can still visit places like grocery stores, banks, parks and more — which California’s mandatory order also allows for its residents.
Since Abbott’s announcement, Texas’ top leaders were quick to distance the state’s actions from California’s.
“We have not put in the orders or the rules that California has put in to stay in place. I mean the entire state of California is shut down. We’re not at that point yet. We want to avoid that point,” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick told KSKY talk show host Mark Davis Friday morning.
House Speaker Dennis Bonnen took to Twitter Friday to squash any rumors that such an order was on the horizon.
Asked Saturday about the possibility of Abbott issuing a stay-at home-order, John Hellerstedt, commissioner of the Texas Department of State Health Services, said: “I can only say what I believe the governor has said publicly. We are looking at absolutely every option that we have and trying to understand when we could exercise those options and why.”
Gerald Parker, who serves as the associate dean of Global One Health at the Texas A&M College of Veterinary Medicine & Biomedical Sciences and has worked on pandemic response at a federal level, said he thinks Texas is calibrated in the right spot.
“We’ve got to find the right balance that provides safety, but also allows a little bit of our economy to continue so we don’t have a catastrophe economically,” Parker said.
But Michael Buchmeier, a University of California, Irvine professor of medicine and biological sciences and associate director of its Center for Virus Research, said a hesitancy to shelter-in-place now over concerns of future economic losses could make things worse in the long run.
“If they don’t shelter-in-place and the epidemic gets worse — which it will — then they will have lost much more business than they would if they sheltered-in-place,” Buchmeier said.
Abbott’s executive order went into effect at midnight Friday and lasts through April 3, with the possibility of it being extended based on the virus’ spread in Texas and the CDC’s recommendations, Abbott said.
Benjamin Neuman, the head Texas A&M University-Texarkana’s biology department who has worked with coronaviruses for 24 years, said he anticipates statewide restrictions will be necessary for longer.
“It may take a week or two to even tell whether or not this is having the desired effect,” Neuman said. “Until we know the size of the curve, we won’t really know whether or not we’re having any effect on it.”
To better understand the size of the curve, testing capabilities need to increase to the point that “you’re not just testing people that are positive, but you’re also testing all the people around them,” Neuman said.
Buchmeier said the statewide order in California will be a good test case.
“What we need to do now is we need to flatten the curve. If we don’t do that we’re going to be in even more trouble,” Buchmeier said. “If we can get 40 million people to comply and that has an effect on the spread of virus in the state, then I think that’s a pretty good demonstration.”
As of Saturday afternoon, Texas had at least 304 confirmed cases and five deaths, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services count. Meanwhile as of Friday night, California’s Department of Public Health reported 1,224 positive cases and 23 deaths.
While Texas has less confirmed cases than states like California, Washington and Florida, that could quickly change. Abbott himself said he anticipates “tens of thousands” of Texans could test positive for COVID-19 in two weeks as the state’s testing capabilities ramp up.
“You’ve got a low number of cases that’s been identified, but we’ve seen in Seattle how quickly that can increase in a population that has no protection,” Buchmeier said.
From a virologist’s perspective, Nueman said stricter measures should be put in place sooner, rather than waiting for the outbreak to grow to a certain size.
“I think coronavirus is nothing to be messed with,” Nueman said.
Under Chapter 418 of the Texas Government Code, county judges and mayors may also control movement after declaring a local state of disaster.
Fort Worth’s Code Compliance Director Brandon Bennett, who has led the city’s public health response to the COVID-19 outbreak, said he did not expect Fort Worth to call for shelter in place “imminently soon.” But if Tarrant County sees a sharp increase in community spread of the virus, that option would be strongly considered, he said, but he’d rather the declaration be wide ranging.
“If you’re going to have a shelter in place, it’s really more effective coming from the state level than through individual cities and counties,” Bennett said. “If the viral spread becomes more community-based and the numbers go up, there’s no reason Texas wouldn’t consider something like that.”
In a town hall Thursday night on WFAA, Fort Worth Mayor Betsy Price said a local shelter-in-place is “on our criteria to be evaluated” but doesn’t anticipate that being an immediate measure.
“We’re listening to our medical professionals and community health people, and we’re taking everything into account,” Price said. “But right now I don’t see that happening, certainly not any time immediate, but a week ago I wouldn’t have said we’d have every bar and every restaurant closed, because this is an incredibly fluid process.”
Arlington Mayor Jeff Williams echoed Price’s comments and said he was hopeful residents and businesses cooperating with the imposed restrictions, “can help really cut down on the exposure of this virus so we don’t get to that point.”
Nationwide, 21 counties across three states have issued local shelter-in-place directives as of Friday, according to the National Association of Counties, and no county in Texas has yet to do so.
According to the Houston Chronicle, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo didn’t rule out the possibility of a shelter-in-place order Thursday. But Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner took to Twitter Friday to clamp down on rumors, and later announced an investigation into them.
“I have given no order to shutdown the City. If that happens you will hear it from me, the County Judge or the Governor. Short of that, you are hearing rumors. But you should avoid crowds and practice social distancing,” Turner wrote.
And it’s something experts encouraged. With or without increased statewide mandates, Texans can already help curb the virus’ spread by staying home, limiting contact with others and only leaving the house for essential trips.
“All of those single individuals will provide additional protection against spreading this infection,” Buchmeier said.
Staff writers Luke Ranker and Mark Dent contributed to this story.
This story was originally published March 21, 2020 at 3:56 PM.
