National spotlight on Fort Worth area congressional race: Here’s what voters are saying
Joni Lehman knows eyes throughout the country are trained on her hometown and the rest of the cities and counties that make up the 24th Congressional District in North Texas.
And she believes she knows why.
There have been so many people moving in recent years to North Texas, many for jobs at companies ranging from Toyota to McKesson Corp., that it’s no longer easy to reliably predict how voters here will lean. Fifty-seven percent of the district’s residents were born outside of Texas, and a quarter of them are foreign born.
“We’ve had so much growth, so many people coming here,” said Lehman, 63, of Southlake.
Now the question is whether the 24th District, which stretches from the edges of Fort Worth and Keller through Carrollton and Addison, will continue to be represented by a Republican after this year.
U.S. Rep. Kenny Marchant, R-Coppell, is not seeking another term after he narrowly won re-election in 2018 with 50.6% of the vote.
“I hope it stays Republican,” said Lehman, a longtime Republican voter who lives in the district. “I hope it stays strong and conservative.”
Not everyone agrees, including Jessica Kelton, a 35-year-old Democrat and data and analysis marketing director who lives in the small part of Fort Worth that’s included in the 24th.
“We’ve had so many transplants move in from the West Coast,” she said. “It brought in a different mentality and a different mindset.
“I know Texas is supposedly a Trump state,” said Kelton, who is the president of Mid-Cities Democrats. “But I think sensibility will prevail in November.”
Political analysts point to the 24th CD as one of the nation’s top races. The district used to “lean Republican,” but is now considered a “toss up” by Politico.
“To have the U.S. watching this race is crazy,” said Caroline Calhoon, a 35-year-old Colleyville Republican who said she doesn’t know yet which candidate will get her vote.
“It’s cool, though.”
Early voting for the March 3 primary runs from Feb. 18-28.
Flippable?
At stake in this district that includes 817,000 residents is a two-year term that pays $174,000 a year.
Marchant has represented this district since 2005, since boundary lines were redrawn during a mid-decade redistricting.
Previously, the district was represented by Democrat Martin Frost, who served in the House from 1979 to 2005. He moved to the 32nd district and lost to Pete Sessions after redistricting made the 24th more Republican.
Five Republicans are in this race: Beth Van Duyne, a former Irving mayor; Desi Maes, a Dallas business owner, Jeron Liverman, a Bedford associated broker/real estate agent; David Fegan, a Colleyville property manager; and Sunny Chaparala, a Dallas real estate broker.
Seven Democrats also are in, although one has already ended her campaign.
Those still in include: Kim Olson, a retired U.S. Air Force Colonel in Colleyville; Jan McDowell, the retired CPA in Carrollton who challenged Marchant for this seat in 2018; John Biggan, a Hurst data scientist and adjunct psychology professor; Richard Fleming, a Carrollton tax adviser; Candace Valenzuela, a former school board trustee from Dallas; and Sam Vega, an Irving project manager/art director.
“I am hearing buzz about the race, and seeing quite a bit of media and signage,” said Trasa Robertson Cobern, who lives in Hurst and serves as president of a Texas Federation of Republican Women Club. “I believe there is energy toward someone new taking that seat, since Rep. Marchant has been there so long.”
She said the GOP field is strong in the race.
“I believe whomever wins the Republican primary for Congressional District 24 has an excellent chance of winning the general election in November,” she said.
Stacey Silverman, a 51-year-old Democrat who lives in Grapevine, believes Democrats have an edge.
“People are very excited that so many fine candidates on the Democratic side have thrown their hat into the race,” she said. “I have lived in the 24th District for 22 years and I think there is a good chance it’s flippable.”
Shifting numbers
Marchant was first elected to this post in 2004 with 64% of the vote. His margin of victory peaked at 81.6% in 2010 when there was no Democrat on the ballot. By 2018, he barely defeated McDowell.
President Donald Trump won this congressional district in 2016 with 50.7%, a significantly smaller margin than John McCain saw in 2008 (58%) and Mitt Romney saw in 2012 (60.4%), according to data by Daily Kos.
Do the recent election results show a slow-moving Democratic surge or were they just blips?
Lehman said she doesn’t know if Marchant’s declining margin of victory was a sign of the times.
“Some voters may have been at the point where you start to question the longevity of someone,” she said. “Kenny held that position for a really long time.”
Silverman thinks Marchant’s numbers went down for other reasons.
“Marchant is inaccessible,” she said. “Many of us have sought to meet with him regarding various issues over the years and neither he nor members of his staff have given us the time of day.“
As for the Trump results, some Republicans argue that he is so popular that he won the district despite big negatives, such as the Access Hollywood tape.
Some Democrats believe the numbers simply show a reaction to Trump.
“There’s something very undignified with how Trump conducts himself,” Kelton said. “Texas culture is about honor, being an honorable person.”
The majority of the district is white, with about 25% Hispanic and 10% African-American, according to the Census data. Median household income has grown from nearly $60,000 in 2010 to nearly $75,000 in 2018. And the percentage of high school graduates grew from 88.9% to 91% as did the percentage of college graduates, from 42.7% to 47.2%.
‘Get out and vote’
Since the eyes of the country are on CD 24 — and they likely will stay on this district until the Nov. 3 election — many hope people show up at the polls.
Some fear that with politics and impeachment hearings constantly in the news, people will be burned out and stay home.
“There seems to be such apathy and low voter turnout in (some) elections,” Silverman said.
“We want people to get out and vote,” Lehman said. “That’s the most important thing. Whichever way it goes, we will deal with it.”
This story was originally published January 31, 2020 at 6:00 AM.
