The DFL backed Flanagan for Senate, but the money's on Craig

MINNEAPOLIS - As Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan picked up the DFL endorsement for the Senate last weekend, a new attack ad started airing across Minnesota accusing her of raising money from corporate special interests.

The ad, put together by the North Star Dawn PAC, a group that backs Flanagan opponent Rep. Angie Craig, was a glimpse of what's to come in a contest already attracting an outpouring of money from around the country.

Flanagan may have the party's backing and post-convention momentum heading into the August primary, but Craig has a significant financial advantage in the tight race. Donors and PACs are backing the more moderate Craig, whom they believe is better positioned to ensure the seat remains blue come November.

"The party raises money for their candidates, but I'll also be raising money for Angie Craig, who would make a much better U.S. senator and has a much better chance at winning," said prominent Minnesota-based Democratic donor Vance Opperman, who also supports Sen. Amy Klobuchar for governor.

Opperman anticipates "hesitance" from some donors to send money to the DFL before the primary, given the party's endorsement of Flanagan.

The race reflects the broader tug-of-war inside the Democratic Party between progressives pushing the party left and moderates worried about appealing to a broader electorate to hold and flip seats in a pivotal midterm.

The DFL endorsement grants Flanagan volunteers, door knockers and a pot of shared money for the party's endorsed candidates. But the influx of outside spending for Craig will further tilt the financial mismatch between the two.

Flanagan, who's pledged to forgo corporate PAC money, expects her campaign to resonate with voters even as campaign spending starts to ramp up.

"I believe this seat belongs to Minnesotans - not the highest bidder," Flanagan said in a statement. "We're building this campaign the DFL way: by showing up and talking to voters everywhere."

Both candidates picking up outside support

Flanagan also benefited from outside groups backing her Senate run in the lead-up to the endorsement convention.

She was boosted by Clear Voice Minnesota, a PAC that's spent more than $271,000 on ads attacking Craig's record on immigration, according to campaign sources.

A PAC aligned with the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association also committed $2 million in advertising for Flanagan with ads slamming Craig for her vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act, which requires federal agents to detain noncitizens suspected of burglary or theft.

It's unclear if more groups will continue boosting Flanagan, who plans to leverage her endorsement to ramp up her operation across the state with a slate of other DFL-endorsed candidates.

Donors, however, aren't so concerned with endorsements.

"If you are an outside organization looking to invest in the Minnesota Senate race, the endorsement is not really what you're looking at; you're looking at polling," said former DFL Party Chair Brian Melendez.

While groups backing Flanagan went all in for her before the party's endorsement, those backing Craig have indicated their spending is just ramping up.

North Star Dawn PAC has committed more than $1.1 million to Craig and backed a poll that showed the congresswoman in a dead heat with Flanagan this week.

"Flanagan's super PAC spent months running negative ads to delegates in an effort to influence backroom politics," said North Star Dawn PAC spokesperson Jerid Kurtz. "We're focused on talking to voters now to ensure they know the truth about Flanagan's record."

The PAC was behind the new attack ad that Flanagan's campaign has slammed for its use of artificial intelligence and for "misleading and manipulating voters."

Campaign sources also show Craig has the backing of the Civic Progress Fund, which committed more than $2.4 million to the race; the Center Forward Committee, which has pledged more than $1.2 million; and Minnesotans for Progress, which is supporting her with more than $672,000.

Outside groups aren't allowed to coordinate with campaigns, but they often rely on a tactic known as "red boxing," where candidates post their policy positions on their campaign websites as signals.

Craig's campaign has used the tactic to show she wanted groups to target DFL primary voters to let them know she has stood up to President Donald Trump and criticized the Operation Metro Surge immigration crackdown.

Asked about money flowing through the race, a spokesperson for Craig's campaign highlighted Flanagan's outside support. "[Flanagan] can't pass her own litmus test and continues to mislead voters," the spokesperson said, referencing corporate money raised by the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association.

Party support put to the test

Flanagan supporters say her endorsement, coupled with the grassroots support behind her, will matter more than money.

"The DFL endorsement matters because endorsed candidates immediately plug in to this battle-tested, statewide organizing operation active in every corner of Minnesota," DFL Party Chair Richard Carlbom said in a statement. "There's no substitute for that kind of grassroots infrastructure and coordinated support."

In the Illinois Senate race, a similar battle has already played out.

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton was outspent by her primary opponent, U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who was also boosted by outside groups. But Stratton still won a three-way Democratic primary in a race that was dominated by a debate around immigration reform. Like Flanagan, Stratton was seen as the most progressive candidate in the race.

Retiring Sen. Tina Smith, who has endorsed Flanagan, said she thinks the lieutenant governor's post-convention momentum and the results of the Illinois Senate primary are signs of what's to come in Minnesota.

"I believe that this election will be won by people and not money," Smith said in a brief interview on Capitol Hill. "I think that Peggy has such strong grassroots support around the state, and the people that were at the convention [last] weekend represent thousands and thousands of Minnesotans, and I don't think that the money will win. I think that the people will win."

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