India's April retail inflation quickens to 3.48% on-year

India's retail inflation quickened to 3.48% year-over-year in April from 3.40% in March, government data showed on Tuesday.

A Reuters poll had projected retail inflation at 3.8%.

COMMENTARY:

SAKSHI GUPTA, PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK, GURUGRAM

"Retail inflation remained low at 3.5% in April as the pass-through of higher oil prices to households has so far been contained, with petrol and diesel pump prices remaining constant. Today's print reinforces the favourable starting point for inflation in the backdrop of the current conflict and provides the central bank sufficient headroom before turning hawkish."

"That said, an increase in pump prices, as oil prices remain above $100 pbl, could push up inflation over the coming months both through the direct and indirect impact (by raising transport costs). A 5 rupees increase in petrol prices could raise inflation by 20bps just through the direct impact."

"The risks to inflation remain skewed towards the upside, emanating from higher energy prices, rupee weakness, as well as any disruptions due to El Nino during the monsoon season. We currently estimate inflation to average close to 5% with upside risks to our forecasts."

(Reporting by Pranav Kashyap , Compiled by Chandini Monnappa; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)

Copyright Reuters or USA Today Network via Reuters Connect.

This story was originally published May 12, 2026 at 5:55 AM.