Trump's Approval Rating Compared to Predecessors Facing Midterm Elections

President Donald Trump is the “second-most-unpopular president out of the past nine midterms," forecaster and statistician Nate Silver wrote in a Tuesday post on Silver Bulletin.

Trump’s approval rating has dipped below 40 percent in the latest average, just months ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, as Republicans work to maintain control of the House and Democrats look to flip it.

Newsweek has reached out to the White House for comment via email on Wednesday.

What To Know

The Silver Bulletin noted that Trump is more unpopular now than he was in 2018 during his first term, when Democrats gained 40 House seats in the midterms, two years after he was elected to office. Democrats are looking to flip seats this November, as Republicans hold a 217-214 majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate.

However, the Silver Bulletin said that at that time Democrats had a larger lead, a 7.6-point margin, compared to today's 5.7-point margin on the generic congressional ballot. In 2022, by the same model, Republicans had a 2-point lead.

The only president more unpopular than Trump right now was former President George W. Bush in 2006, the Silver Bulletin said. At that time, about three years into the Iraq War, Democrats had a significant lead of 11.4 points.

While Trump will not be on the ballot in November, his approval rating could shape the political environment as voters decide control of Congress. The president has fallen out of favor with several prominent figures of his MAGA base, including former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, and conservative pundits Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens, among others. However, he still maintains support among many in the party.

Traditionally, the party that does not hold the White House tends to pick up seats in the midterms. In 2018, Republicans lost the House after large Democratic gains.

Silver outlined the past several presidential approval ratings ahead of midterm elections as of mid-April in those years, finding that Trump's is the lowest since the 2002 midterm, when Bush had a 70.9 percent approval rating, just months after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In the 2006 midterms, Silver noted that Bush's approval rating dropped to 35.6 percent.

According to Gallup polls, Bush's approval rating in April, ahead of the 2006 midterm elections, was around 34 percent. Former President Barack Obama's approval rating was around 47 percent in April 2010 and 40 percent in March 2014, with Silver putting Obama's 2014 approval rating at around 44 percent.

Silver noted Trump's approval rating in 2018 as 40.7 percent. In April 2022, according to Gallup, former President Joe Biden had a 41 percent approval rating, and 38 percent in April 2024, all within a percentage or so of Silver's polling averages.

What Happens Next

With the war in Iran ongoing and a slate of domestic policy initiatives underway, the president's approval rating is likely to fluctuate in the months leading up to the midterm elections.

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This story was originally published April 22, 2026 at 1:27 PM.