How are Harris and Trump performing in 3 key swing states? What new poll found

Seemingly overnight, President Joe Biden’s July 21 announcement that he would not seek re-election dramatically reshaped the race for the White House.

Democrats, with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, suddenly found they had a fighting chance in swing states, polls have shown.

This realignment is illustrated by a pair of surveys taken in three key Rust Belt states — conducted before and after Biden’s withdrawal — which show the rapid shift in political winds.

In a Data for Progress poll taken between July 18 and 23 in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Biden was losing to former President Donald Trump by as much as four percentage points.

The poll — in which 90% of responses were received before Biden stepped down — found he was down 45% to Trump’s 49% in a two-way match-up.

In a six-way race, his performance was even worse, garnering 41% to Trump’s 47%, the poll, which sampled 1,571 likely voters and had a margin of error of 2 points, found.

But in a second survey, conducted between July 29 and Aug. 2 — after Harris became the presumptive nominee — the tables were turned.

In the poll, which sampled 1,447 likely voters, Harris narrowly outpaced Trump, receiving 48% support versus his 47% in a two-way match-up.

She beat him by the same margin in a six-way match-up, netting 45% to his 44%, the poll, which had a margin of error of 3 points, found.

The polls also showed that, since Harris entered the race, more voters believe the Democrats will win the White House, though a majority still believe Trump will be victorious.

In the first poll, 58% of likely voters in the three states said they believed Trump would win, compared to 35% who said the same for Biden.

But in the second poll, those numbers tightened, with 49% saying they thought Trump would win and 42% saying the same for Harris.

Additionally, the surveys showed Harris’ favorability shooting up by six points, from 42% to 48%. On the other hand, Trump’s favorability slipped from 47% to 46%.

The new poll also found another positive sign for Harris: she’s seen as less extreme than Trump.

Forty-three percent of respondents said she was too extreme to be president, while a slim majority, 51% disagreed.

In contrast, a majority of respondents, 53%, said Trump was too extreme to be president, while 44% disagreed.

Still, she had at least one major weakness in the new poll.

Half of respondents said she was responsible for hiding Biden’s health issues, while a smaller share, 40%, disagreed.

This story was originally published August 8, 2024 at 2:52 PM with the headline "How are Harris and Trump performing in 3 key swing states? What new poll found."