‘Beginning of a bad week’ as flood risk rises across North Texas

Water is gushing out of Possum Kingdom Lake and headed downstream in the Brazos River, an all-too familiar — and potentially disastrous — scenario for residents of Horseshoe Bend.

“Here we go again,” said Horseshoe Bend resident Bart Salter. “I’m worried it could end up being close to the ’90-’91 flood that wiped out a lot of people. I think this is the beginning of a bad week.”

Forecasters are predicting a moderate flood of 26.9 feet, at the Dennis gauge just above Horseshoe Bend. But that forecast is likely to change as more rain falls.

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service are predicting that up to 5 inches of rain could fall in parts of North Texas this week, which could cause widespread flooding — especially along the already saturated Brazos River.

Officials with the Brazos River Authority have opened two floodgates at Possum Kingdom as lake levels rise and say a third gate could be opened later this week.

As they watch the flood gauges, Horseshoe Bend residents have been furiously debating the water release policies of the Brazos River Authority, which controls both Possum Kingdom and Lake Granbury, where all 14 flood gates are open.

“Sometimes I don’t understand what the BRA is doing,” Salter said. “Their policies are just beyond me.”

The Brazos River Authority is releasing water at Lake Granbury at 36,500 cubic feet per second and at 19,600 cubic feet per second at Possum Kingdom. The flows at Possum Kingdom are enough to fill an Olympic-size swimming pool every five seconds or about a quarter of the flow at Niagara Falls.

“It appears the runoff between Possum Kingdom and Lake Granbury has really picked up,” said Judi Pierce, a Brazos River Authority spokeswoman.

‘Not built for flood control’

The BRA does not release water in anticipation of precipitation. Instead, the releases are based on stream flows into the reservoirs. Right now, there is nowhere for the water to go.

“There are two kinds of reservoir dams,” Pierce said. “The Corps of Engineers have flood control reservoirs. At the time they are full, they have a good amount of space to hold floodwaters. At Possum Kingdom and Granbury, these reservoirs are not built for flood control.”

That means that once the BRA lakes are full, water must be released.

“I think it’s fair to say the bathtub is full,” Pierce said.

Pierce said that when lake levels get too high, “if we do not release water when we are full, the water will automatically go into the emergency spillway and over our dam gate. It can cause those gates to fail and of course in a worst-case scenario, it can cause the dam to fail.”

Joel Kertok, a Parker County spokesman, is warning residents near the river to pay attention, noting that there has been one drowning death of a 10-year-old boy who slipped into the river while fishing on Saturday.

“We’ve already had one tragedy and now we have the river flooding,” Kertok said. “It’s a dangerous situation along the river. You can have another accident that can cause a loss of life and the potential still exists for this to be worse than what is currently forecast.”

‘Soils are saturated’

Greg Waller, a service hydrologist with the National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center, said any rain will run off into creeks and rivers, which means some parts of North Texas will likely see flooding this week.

“It’s not going to be the amount as much as the intensity,” Waller said. “The soils are saturated. We are anticipating river flooding. The flood control lakes are storing what they can but the water storage lakes have to pass through those inflows. It’s going to be a very sensitive time this week.”

In the Dallas-Fort Worth area, there’s a 60 percent chance of rain on Wednesday and 70 percent chance on Thursday before dropping to 50 percent on Friday.

West of Possum Kingdom, the Hubbard Creek reservoir is also full for the first time since April 2008 and is releasing water that will flow into Possum Kingdom. Hubbard, just outside of Breckenridge, was just 30 percent full one year ago.

The Tarrant Regional Water District is also watching rainfall closely.

Both Lake Bridgeport and Eagle Mountain Lake can hold additional water but it will likely result in the flooding of some homes.

“There’s a good chance we will be flooding the lowest house at Lake Bridgeport again this week if the forecasts are correct,” said David Marshall, TRWD’s director of engineering and operations support. “Our biggest concern is if we get a thunderstorm that dumps a three-inch rainfall in the Lake Bridgeport watershed. That could change things quickly.”

Hood County Sheriff Roger Deeds was urging residents to stay off roads as heavy storms were causing flash flooding across the area.

“There are all kinds of places flooded where we have deep intersections,” Deeds said. “Nobody has been hurt and the the water is starting to recede but we’re worried about what’s coming the rest of the week.”

Road closures had also been reported in Johnson County from flash flooding.

This story was originally published May 31, 2016 at 4:58 PM with the headline "‘Beginning of a bad week’ as flood risk rises across North Texas."