Incoming storms could dump a deluge on Dallas-Fort Worth area

The rain that is returning to North Texas might be too much of a good thing.

Forecasters are currently calling for 2-5 inches of rain, but if the storm system slows down or stalls, totals could climb even higher.

“It’s coming,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Joe Harris. “Depending on the speed of the system, it might exceed 5 inches in a few areas.”

There were a few sprinkles in the area on Wednesday. The heavy stuff will start about midday Thursday.

The line of storms was still west of Fort Worth on Thursday morning, making for a dry commute. But closer to the noon hour, the rain chances for DFW jump to 70-80 percent, weather service meteorologist Lamont Bain said.

Rain chances will jump to 90 percent later in the day. As a result, the weather service issued a flash flood watch for the Fort Worth area. Bain said the bulk of the rain should occur from midday Thursday through midday Friday.

Steady rainfall is expected to roll across North Texas Thursday night into Friday. The storms and showers are predicted to stick around until Sunday.

“Friday night football and Saturday game days are going to be wet,” Harris said. “Go out west toward Lubbock or Midland and it may be over but if you’re headed south or east, you’re going to find rain.”

Some forecast models have suggested rainfall totals could be as high as 8 to 10 inches. The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center has forecast a possibility of flash flooding across a large part of Texas.

Some models have suggested the storm could stall, which would send rainfall totals soaring.

“How fast does that heavy rainfall progress east?” Harris said. “What if it gets slowed down, and how long does it stay in one place? If it stalls out six to 10 hours over one place, then you’re going to see rainfall totals over 5 inches.”

For now, forecasters aren’t expecting any major flooding issues like the region saw in the spring.

Thanks to the return of the drought, lake levels have dropped and many creek beds and stream beds are dry.

“I expect the first three inches to be absorbed into the soil or to fill stock tanks,” said David Marshall, director of engineering and operations support for the Tarrant Regional Water District. “As far as the reservoirs go, we’ve got plenty of storage.”

But Marshall said TRWD’s own meteorologist has said a torrent of rain is possible.

“This is the perfect storm to get that 6 or 7 inches of rainfall in here,” Marshall said. “We should see 4 to 5 inches without any problem. Anyone driving through a low-lying area needs to be cautious.”

Clay Church, a spokesman for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Fort Worth District, said all of the Corps DFW-area lakes are now back below their conservation level and have room to store more flood water.

But the rain is needed.

At Dallas/Fort Worth Airport, 39.10 inches of rain has fallen, which is 9.86 inches above normal. Only 2.14 inches of rain has fallen since Sept. 1, however, 2.99 inches below normal.

And drought has returned. The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor shows a large part of North Texas in severe drought with areas to the east and southeast in extreme drought.

Staff writer Ryan Osborne contributed to this report.

This story was originally published October 21, 2015 at 11:51 AM with the headline "Incoming storms could dump a deluge on Dallas-Fort Worth area."