Drought is back in North Texas, but rain may return next week

After May’s torrential rainfall, the spigot turned off across North Texas.

As a result, dry conditions have returned and most of Tarrant and Dallas counties are now in severe drought, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which was released Thursday. Areas southeast of Dallas near Mexia, Fairfield and Palestine are in exceptional drought, the worst category.

Since July, areas of North Texas are seeing rain deficits of 3 to 7 inches.

For Saginaw rancher Pete Bonds, president of the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association, the rain can’t return fast enough. With all the long-range forecasts predicting that El Niño will bring a wetter-than-normal winter, Bonds is growing impatient.

“We’re all kind of wondering, ‘Where is this damn El Niño?’ ” Bonds said. “It’s here right now, but where’s the rain?”

Forecasters continue to predict that a strong El Niño, which occurs when sea-surface temperatures are warmer than normal in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, will remain in place this winter. That’s when El Niño tends to have the most influence on weather across North America.

While this year’s rainfall — almost 40 inches at Dallas/Fort Worth Airport — filled area lakes, dry conditions are beginning to take a toll.

This week’s Texas Crop Report said that “declining pastures meant some producers had to put out hay for cattle” and that “some cattle producers were planning to hold on to weaned calves for a while in hopes the market will improve.”

Many ranchers have been conservative in rebuilding their herds because of recent droughts, Bonds said.

“Nobody is really selling off,” Bonds said. “Our strategy right now is ‘pray for rain.’ ”

And forecasters say those prayers might soon be answered.

After the first real taste of fall this weekend — with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s and morning lows in the 50s — there’s a chance for rain next week.

“It looks like we’re on track for some decent rain chances mid-to-late next week,” National Weather Service meteorologist Dennis Cavanaugh said.

Cavanaugh said next week’s storm system is now near the Aleutian Islands in the northern Pacific Ocean, so it’s uncertain how strong it will be when it gets here.

The Climate Prediction Center’s one-month outlook continues to show above-normal precipitation in October.

“We can quickly make up any short-term deficits by having a wetter-than-normal October,” Cavanaugh said. “I would say more likely than not we’re going to get some precipitation in October.”

This story was originally published October 1, 2015 at 4:29 PM with the headline "Drought is back in North Texas, but rain may return next week."