Would splitting Keller ISD into 2 school districts hurt home values? It’s complicated.
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Keller ISD controversy
Read our reporting on the possible plan to split Keller ISD into two districts.
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A search of real estate listings in far north Fort Worth’s Alliance area makes it clear just how important many buyers and sellers believe the Keller school district is to home values.
“This beautiful home in Keller ISD...”
“Situated within the top-rated Keller ISD...”
“Perfectly situated in the sought-after Keller Independent School District...”
Some of the uproar over the recent revelation that some Keller school board members have privately discussed splitting the district — perhaps shedding off roughly half the district that’s in Fort Worth — has been fueled by what such a move could mean for property values. The school board’s next public meeting is Jan. 30.
Generally speaking, neighborhoods on the Keller side of the district are wealthier than some sections on the Alliance side, at least in terms of types of homes and price points.
It’s not uncommon for real estate listings to mention a popular school district even before getting into lot size, square footage or property amenities. By some measures, Keller ISD is one of the top in Tarrant County; it ranked fifth in a report in October by school data and search platform Niche.
So how would a Keller ISD split affect home resale values in the Fort Worth and Watauga parts of the district, which would potentially become a new “Alliance” ISD? Should some homeowners be worried?
Do Keller ISD schools make homes cost more?
In 2019, the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M studied whether better schools result in higher home prices. “While that’s generally true,” the study’s authors wrote, “the factors behind it are complex.”
The numbers showed that student achievement and post-secondary readiness (a measure of how prepared students are for college, career or military) are highest in areas with an average home value of more than $300,000, the highest bracket used in the measurements.
But the study doesn’t determine whether good schools push up prices, or if families in wealthier areas simply have more time and resources to support their children academically.
The Texas A&M study is nearly six years old, and home prices in North Texas have, for the most part, steadily risen since 2019. Today, most properties on either side of Keller ISD’s boundaries start at around $300,000.
However, a Star-Telegram review of public data, home listings and sales figures does suggest that homes in the current Keller ISD command a premium over homes of similar size and age in neighboring districts. Our analysis isn’t scientific; many variables come into play with real estate prices.
Let’s assume Keller ISD is split down the middle, with Denton Highway as the new boundary between a much smaller Keller ISD to the east, and a new Alliance-area district to the west.
Currently, on the Alliance side, the average asking price for active home listings is roughly $346,700, which is about $20,000 higher than nearby comparable homes in the Northwest and Eagle Mountain-Saginaw school districts.
Of course, the asking price often differs from what a house actually sells for.
Still, homes in some parts of the Alliance side of Keller ISD are currently selling for more money than similar homes outside the district. Here’s a snapshot of December median home sales data by ZIP code:
- 76244 (northwest side of Keller ISD): $377,500
- 76137 (southwest side of Keller ISD): $342,770
- 76131 (west of I-35W, in Eagle Mountain-Saginaw ISD): $334,995
- 76177 (I-35W corridor north of U.S. 287, in Northwest ISD): $367,450
It’s important to note that sales price figures doesn’t represent exact apples-to-apples comparisons, since that data is looking at every home sold in those ZIP codes, not just homes of similar size and construction.
So, does being in Keller ISD add thousands to home prices? Unfortunately, it’s not that simple, since so many other things go into what a home is worth. And multiple real estate professionals contacted by the Star-Telegram are reluctant to weigh in publicly.
An appraiser who works in the Alliance area and several Realtors acknowledged a perceived correlation between school performance and home prices, but they followed that up by saying there was no way to accurately quantify it, nor is there a way to predict the value impact of the proposed Keller ISD split.
“Who wants to get caught up in speculation?” one said.
A real estate broker wondered whether a district split would impact school performance, and thus home resale values, at all. He argued that even if the district changes, the schools themselves would remain intact, barring a significant personnel exodus. And though it could be argued that funding plays a big role in how well schools perform, at the end of the day it comes down to the quality of teachers and administrators.
Keller ISD by the numbers
Besides not wanting to speculate, a big reason why Realtors are reticent to discuss how changes in Keller ISD might impact home prices is that talking about school quality is oftentimes coded language.
For some people, “good schools” means “affluent, majority white schools,” and fair housing laws prohibit Realtors from steering clients to or from certain areas for reasons related to race, color, religion, gender, disability, familial status or national origin.
The average estimated market value of homes on the east side of Keller ISD is more than $200,000 higher than on the west side. The average annual income discrepancy between the two sides is more than $73,000. The statistics are based on a Star-Telegram analysis of Esri GIS data from federal agencies and the Pulsenomics research firm.
The racial makeup is also different. Keller ISD east is 74.2% white, while Keller ISD west is more diverse with a 54.4% white population.
Those elements have polarized the split debate. Several residents who passionately spoke at a Jan. 16 school board meeting viewed it as a battle between the “haves” and “have-nots” for the future of the district.
The board’s president, Charles Randklev, said the public would have a chance to weigh in on any proposals it puts forth. Keller, like other growing North Texas districts, is having to consider ways to save money because of what they consider inadequate funding from the legislature.
But based on angry comments from homeowners during the meeting, school board members may ultimately face political consequences from voters who elected them.
“If you look at the maps after the election results,” said one speaker from the affluent Heritage subdivision, on the non-Keller side of Keller ISD, “it revealed that these subdivisions supported these conservative candidates, and now they’re the ones fighting the hardest to protect their property values.”
This story was originally published January 23, 2025 at 4:31 PM.
