Hot, dry conditions likely to stick around DFW, but rain could return in fall

Summertime has settled in.

It hasn’t rained since July 8, and over the last week, drought climbed from affecting 4 percent of the state to more than 14 percent.

It’s enough for Saginaw rancher Pete Bonds to get a little concerned.

“I feel OK,” Bonds said, “but I don’t trust it.”

As president of the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association, he said conditions are actually pretty good for ranchers across the state.

Even with the flooding rains during May, Bonds said, memories of 2011’s record-breaking 71 days of triple-digit temperatures make it hard to relax about this year’s good fortune.

So is there really anything to worry about?

“There’s plenty of grass out there from the spring rains,” said John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist. “We could see the fire risk increase across the state if it stays dry for a couple of more weeks.”

Only 31 counties, most in Central and West Texas, are under burn bans, but that number could start to increase. In North Texas, Ellis County commissioners imposed a burn ban Friday.

Dallas-Fort Worth is getting a brief respite from triple-digit heat this weekend, with a high of “only” 97 on Saturday and about the same forecast for Sunday. No rain was reported at DFW Airport, making Saturday the 24th straight day without precipitation, the longest streak since July 17-Aug.10, 2011, the National Weather Service reported on social media.

The forecast for next week calls for high temperatures in the high 90s.

Still, conditions are pretty good for the first week of August.

The Tarrant Regional Water District, which supplies raw water to almost all of Tarrant County, said its lakes were 99.8 percent full as of Friday.

The water district had also taken advantage of the excess water in Lake Benbrook to reduce pumping from its East Texas lakes, said David Marshall, director of engineering and operations support.

The last time its lakes were essentially full at the start of August was 2007. Before that, it was 1962, Marshall said.

“I’m still optimistic we’re going to see a wet fall,” Marshall said.

The Climate Prediction Center is showing wetter-than-normal weather returning to parts of Texas in its three-month outlook.

A strong El Niño continues to strengthen in the Pacific Ocean, which has forecasters expecting rains to return eventually to Texas. The center has said there’s a 90 percent chance that El Niño will remain through winter and 80 percent that it will stick around into spring.

“Sooner or later, it’s going to turn wet again,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “There’s never been a case when Texas is dry during an El Niño, and this looks like a strong one.”

If the rains linger into spring, Marshall said, North Texas could even see a repeat of flooding next year.

But Bonds, the Saginaw rancher, said he won’t complain if the rains keep the drought from returning across the entire state.

“The old man who raised me said you can never have too much rain,” Bonds said, “but you can sure have too much mud.”

Staff writer Dustin Dangli contributed to this report.

This story was originally published August 1, 2015 at 8:49 AM with the headline "Hot, dry conditions likely to stick around DFW, but rain could return in fall."