Snow for Christmas in DFW? Cold front could bring unexpected gift

One of the most elusive of Christmas presents for North Texans is snow but forecasters say there’s a chance this holiday season — and a chance is better than nothing.

“What we can say is we can’t rule it out at this point,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Ted Ryan. “We still think there’s a greater likelihood of a cold and dry Christmas but the models are saying there’s a 15 to 20 percent of a winter storm and that's pretty high number for 10 days out.”

For any given year, the odds are about 3 to 4 percent for snow on Christmas. The last White Christmas in the DFW area came in 2012.

Because the forecast models keep changing every time they’re run, there’s no clear consensus this far out, said Ryan, who works in the NWS Fort Worth office.

What needs to happen for snow?

An upper level storm system needs to park over Las Vegas and pump moisture into Texas. If the storm system moves through quickly or drifts back over the Pacific Ocean, then North Texas won’t see any snow — or sleet or freezing rain, either.

What forecasters do know is a strong cold front will move into the DFW area, most likely on Thursday with low temperatures dropping below freezing.

For now, Ryan said “don’t freak out” but do pay attention to the weather forecast.

“I would say anybody with travel plans, whether by plan or car, probably should keep an eye on the forecast and check back early next week,” Ryan said. “If it does turn out to be a winter storm, people may need to look at changing their plans and leaving a day early.”

There have been 24 Christmas winter weather events in North Texas since 1841, according to the National Weather Service.

This story was originally published December 15, 2017 at 11:29 AM with the headline "Snow for Christmas in DFW? Cold front could bring unexpected gift."