Why this could be the warmest year on record in DFW

Barring a dramatic cool-down in December, this is shaping up to be the warmest year on record in North Texas.

Through Tuesday, the average temperature this year is 71.8 degrees, which is more than 2 degrees higher than the yearly record set in 2012 when the average was 69.3 degrees.

Are the warm temperatures signs of climate change and global warming?

Statistics would say yes, with the top six warmest years on record in North Texas occurring since 1999, according to temperatures recorded at Dallas-Fort Worth Airport.

But National Weather Service meteorologist Dan Huckaby said the vast amount of concrete across the Dallas-Fort Worth area is also a major contributor.

“The urban heat island is warming our temperatures so much, especially the low temperatures, it definitely plays a role,” Huckaby said.

But Huckaby cautions that the heat island is “not a simple thing to quantify” when it comes to temperatures.

Whatever the reason, it’s definitely been warm in recent years.

Last year tied for the second-warmest year on record and set the record for the fewest freezes in a year with 11, and the last freeze occurred on Jan. 8. That was a record for the earliest last freeze.

The six warmest years on record have all occurred since 1999 and the Climate Prediction Center is calling for another warm, dry winter. If you’re looking for a counterpoint, the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted a cold, snowy winter earlier this year.

Drought conditions have returned to Texas as well. About 60 percent of the state is in some form of drought compared to 14 percent three months ago, according to the Texas Drought Monitor.

It's also been unusually dry this fall.

This is the 13th driest fall on record at DFW Airport, where 3.40 inches of rain has fallen since Sept. 1. Normally, DFW Airport records 9.48 inches from Sept. 1 to Dec.1, which is considered fall in meteorological terms.

But there appears to be a change in the weather pattern coming next week. Right now it doesn’t look like an Arctic outbreak but the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-normal precipitation and below normal temperatures in its 6-10 day outlook.

Huckaby cautions not to get too excited about rain chances this far out.

“We have this saying about rain: When in drought leave it out,” Huckaby said.

Warmest years on record

69.3 - 2012

69.2 - 2016

69.2 - 2006

68.7 - 2008

68.6 - 1999

This story was originally published November 29, 2017 at 9:56 AM with the headline "Why this could be the warmest year on record in DFW."