Texas cattle ranchers have reasons to fear tariffs on US beef exports to China
The message coming out of the Cattle Raisers Convention and Expo 2025, hosted by the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association at the Fort Worth Convention Center, was a mixed one: The good news is that while the beef cow inventory is near a 50-year low, prices are at an all-time high thanks to strong consumer demand for beef.
The bad news is that the bottom could fall out at any moment thanks to the economic policy decisions being made in Washington, D.C.
At the convention’s market outlook session on April 11, Randy Blach, the CEO of CattleFax, an industry research and analysis firm, shared a sobering view, pointing to import and export figures and demonstrating how recently announced tariffs — most of which were subsequently paused for 90 days — could affect individual beef producers across Texas.
US beef exports to China
The U.S. is the largest beef producer in the world, and 11% of that production is exported — with upward of 500 million pounds of that beef going to China, which is now engaged in a high-stakes trade war with the U.S.
Last week, President Donald Trump announced punitive tariffs on Chinese products coming into the U.S. China issued a reciprocal tariff rate of 34% on U.S. products. This week, the U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods was effectively raised to 145%, with China raising its tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% in response.
That will likely have an impact on American beef consumption in China, and if that happens, what happens to all the U.S. beef that was earmarked for export there?
“It got quiet in here,” Blach remarked after asking that question, alluding to the silence that permeated the conference room as cattle raisers considered the hit to their bottom line because of tariffs.
Where does the US import beef from?
On the other end of the trade spectrum, the U.S. imports a lot of beef. Why, you might ask, when so much is domestically produced? It’s because the average weight of American beef cattle is high, meaning it has a higher fat content — up to 60% in some cases. U.S. consumers want lean beef, and we get much of that from Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, Australia and Brazil, among other places.
Unless trade agreements are made between the U.S. and some of these countries, Blach warned, it could cause high-quality beef prices to spike, which could erode overall demand here in the U.S.
At the same time, the market volatility we’ve seen in recent days is making consumers think twice about buying beef, the most expensive of the primary proteins eaten in the U.S.
Will tariffs hurt both Texas ranchers and consumers?
The long and short of it is that things could end up badly for both cattle raisers and beef-loving Texans if something isn’t done soon from a policy perspective.
Blach’s advice to cattle raisers was simple: “Bet not thy whole wad,” meaning consider being conservative for the time being.
Only time will tell, he said, how the trade war will shake out and what it will mean for places like Texas, the beef state that “grew from hide and horn,” as Berta Hart Nance so poetically put it long ago.
This story was originally published April 11, 2025 at 6:40 PM.